Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: MLB Free Picks

Sunday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Cinching in on road warrior Marquez
Matt Zylbert
Sun, April 11, 1:23 PM EDT

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants Predictions

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: German Marquez (0-0, 3.60 ERA) vs. Anthony DeSclafani (0-0, 1.80 ERA)

Being a pitcher for the Rockies typically involves considerably contrasting home-and-road splits. Such is expected given their home base resides at Coors Field.

Marquez is one of the franchise’s most extreme cases, and it’s been a far long enough sample size to lean on, given he’s been around with Colorado for six years.

Throughout his career, Marquez has painted a respectable 3.51 ERA and 1.14 WHIP when working outside of Coors. In his home assignments, however, Marquez holds a much un-prettier 5.05 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. That’s a significant difference.

So, cinching in on Marquez in the right road spots can be very beneficial, being that he’s generally more consistent in these outings. In fact, since becoming a regular member of the Rockies rotation, Marquez has literally posted a lower ERA in his away assignments for each season.

View odds for the game here.

On top of that, the opposing venue that Marquez will pitch in this afternoon is a very pitcher-friendly one. Considering his solid start to the year, we’ll trust him here.

Then there’s DeSclafani, a guy that’s long been underrated and could finally be on the verge of breaking out with his third Major League team. His first start of 2021 certainly pointed to that exact direction.

Against a stout Sam Diego Padres batting order, DeSclafani allowed only a single run on four hits across five quality innings. Not only that, he pulled off the incredible act of injuring superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. on a swinging strikeout. Tatis went to the IL.

That’s arguably the face of the game who went down and it was courtesy of DeSclafani. I don’t know how he can’t be riding really high after his Giants debut.

Let’s also remember that before the pandemic, DeSclafani showcased legitimate success previously. His final month of the 2019 season was sensational, when he held hitters to a minuscule .164 average in five starts. Only three years before that, DeSclafani turned his 20 starts that campaign into a desirable 3.28 ERA — as a Cincinnati Red.

See, he’s not some random right-hander and I’m willing to bank on him continuing with success. Though the total is understandably dropping to 7.5 (made no sense for it to even be 8 to begin with), I still recommend a wager on this number.

Pick: UNDER 8 (-120)

Leans

Cubs-Pirates Under 8.5

Mariners-Twins Under 8.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 4-6, -2.72 units

Yesterday’s Result: Marlins-Mets Under 7 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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