MLB Picks: Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Over/Under

Matt Zylbert is back with his pick for the total for Rangers vs. Rays
Matt Zylbert
Mon, April 12, 10:08 AM EDT

MLB Picks

Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Dane Dunning (1-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Tyler Glasnow (0-0, 0.75 ERA)

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Predictions

Glasnow just might be salivating at the matchup he has on tap. It’s a date with the strikeout-laden Rangers batting order.

Considering his dominant beginning to the campaign, bettors would be especially wise to trust him right now, as Glasnow has looked like one of the best aces out there, picking up where left off in October.

Through two assignments — both of which registered as quality starts — only one run’s been scored off the former Pittsburgh Pirate. On top of that, Glasnow wields a superb 15-2 K/BB ratio across his 12 innings. He’s also yielded only five hits.

For his third turn, the strikeout artist will get a team that racks up plenty of K’s at the plate. Texas is currently striking out once every 3.1 at-bats, which is horrible, and it sustains a trend that has surrounded this Rangers offense in recent seasons. They’re plain not hitting either, carrying a .223 team batting average — one year after finishing dead last in the American League with a putrid .217 mark.

So, the recipe is in play for another signature strong performance from Glasnow. In that case, the other starter, Dunning, surviving can decide this wager.

Can the Rangers’ prized import from the Lance Lynn grade be trusted in his second start with the club? Well, I’m thinking yes.

Dunning was terrific in season debut, stringing together five sharp innings against a potent Toronto Blue Jays lineup and scattering only three baserunners. He also walked no batters and struck out six.

Like their opponent, Tampa pens a lineup card featuring plenty of strikeouts. The Rays actually struck out more than any other team a year ago and those tendencies look to be continuing based on their current rate of once every 3.4 ABs.

Overall, it’s a matchup Dunning can handle, even this early in his development. Don’t forget that the former first-round draft pick was already looking at least serviceable in his first taste of the big leagues last season, when he went 2-0 in seven starts with a 3.97 ERA and limited opposing hitters to a .197 batting average.

Make sure you grab this when you can at 7.5, seeing as how the total is already dropping in some books. Then count on Glasgow leading the way to a low score.

MLB Expert Picks

UNDER 7.5 @ -125 (Click to bet)

MLB Free Picks

The Major League Baseball season is in full swing now as we’re a little over a week into the season. You can find Mr. Over/Under, Matt Zylbert, on OddsChecker throughout the season, providing us with his in-depth breakdown and pick on the total for all his plays.

Be on the lookout for Matt’s picks, along with our weekly Major League Baseball betting market video from John Laghezza and Jamie Kelton. On OddsChecker, we bring you the best expert picks and up-to-the-minute odds for all things MLB.

Check out the latest MLB betting odds Here

Monday's MLB Leans

Mariners-Orioles Under 8.5

Phillies-Mets Over 8.5

Angels-Royals Over 9

Indians-White Sox Under 8.5

Athletics-Diamondbacks Under 9.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 5-6, -1.72 units

Yesterday’s Result: Rockies-Giants Under 8 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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