MLB Picks: Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Over/Under

Matt Zylbert is back with his pick for the total for Brewers vs. Cubs
Matt Zylbert
Wed, April 14, 9:10 AM EDT

MLB Picks

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Jake Arrieta (2-0, 2.25 ERA) vs. Corbin Burnes (0-1, 0.73 ERA)

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Predictions

Many did not anticipate this early renaissance from Arrieta in his return to the Cubs. Likewise, many were skeptical about the emergence of Burnes a year ago when he nearly ended up as a finalist for the National League Cy Young Award.

Both are proving they are very much still legitimate and that’s the foundation for how to bet the total of this series finale.

If not for a late-season injury in 2020, Burnes would have been in the running for pitching’s top individual hardware. Even so, he enjoyed a fantastic campaign, engineering a 2.11 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in nine starts (and three relief appearances) while limiting opposing hitters to quite a puny .174 batting average, which was fifth best in all of baseball. He also crafted the third-highest strikeout rate (13.27 K/9).

Though he enters today’s outing at “0-1,” Burnes hasn’t missed a beat from last season, maestro-ing an even more absurd strikeout rate (14.59 K/9) and not walking a single batter. He’s been absolutely dominant, in fact, yielding only a pair of hits total across his two starts. Unfortunately, one was a solo homer and that was the reason for his lone decision.

In any event, Burnes has been completely on his game and that’s something to look forward to as he takes his next turn. Making things sweeter, he’ll be meeting familiar hitters whom he’s had success against. Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Willson Contreras are collectively a combined 2-for-28 in their careers off Burnes. That’s a .071 average.

Arrieta, meanwhile, can do the rest in helping pace a relative quietly ballgame. The 12-year veteran is enjoying a revitalization in his second go-around with the Cubbies, beginning the year with a couple of quality starts (albeit opposite the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates batting order).

Still, an Arrieta in rhythm, which clearly appears to be the case, can be useful for any under bet, let alone one when he’s squaring off with an elite arm like Burnes.

We can also benefit from Arrieta’s track record against the Brewers, especially when pitching on the road at Miller Park... er, American Family Field, where he’s he 4-1 in seven lifetime assignments with a 2.76 ERA — this is actually the third-lowest ERA Arrieta has posted in any ballpark he’s started at more than twice.

Furthermore, this will be a considerably banged-up Milwaukee lineup taking their swings, as Christian Yelich (back) and Lorenzo Cain (quad) are on the sidelines. As a result, starting pitching will dictate.

MLB Expert Picks

UNDER 7.5 @ -107 (Click to bet)

MLB Free Picks

The Major League Baseball season is in full swing now as we’re a little over a week into the season. You can find Mr. Over/Under, Matt Zylbert, on OddsChecker throughout the season, providing us with his in-depth breakdown and pick on the total for all his plays.

Be on the lookout for Matt’s picks, along with our weekly Major League Baseball betting market video from John Laghezza and Jamie Kelton. On OddsChecker, we bring you the best expert picks and up-to-the-minute odds for all things MLB.

Check out the latest MLB betting odds Here

Wednesday's MLB Leans

Red Sox-Twins Under 6 (Game 2)

Padres-Pirates Under 7.5

Rangers-Rays Under 8

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 6-7, -1.92 units

Yesterday’s Result: Mariners-Orioles Under 6.5 — Game 1 (“loss”)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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