Sunday Night Baseball Picks: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs Over/Under

Matt Zylbert is back with his pick for Sunday Night Baseball
Matt Zylbert
Sat, April 17, 8:50 AM EDT

MLB Picks

Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Probable pitchers: Bryse Wilson (0-0, -.-- ERA) vs. Kyle Hendricks (0-1, 3.00 ERA)

Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs Predictions

When it comes to the distinct winds at Wrigley Field, there may be no more significant recurring weather impact in all of sports. These trademark Chicago conditions will always determine the total.

In tonight’s case for this week’s Sunday Night Baseball telecast, those winds will be blowing out a little bit to center, and thus, the linesmakers have integrated that info into whipping up an over/under of 9.

It’s a fair number. One of the two starters, Hendricks, obviously has plenty of experience — and success — working at Wrigley, having only pitched for the Cubs since first debuting seven years ago. The other starter, meanwhile, is making his first start of the season and it’s just the ninth-career starting nod he’s received.

That would be Wilson — the main reason for my first over bet of the campaign here.

Wilson’s been limited in his game action at the Major League level despite first coming up in 2018. Why? Ineffectiveness. The 23-year-old pockets disfiguring lifetime numbers in the bigs (5.91 ERA, 1.80 WHIP), and as a result, he’s been a boon for ‘over’ tickets, with such bets being 7-1 in his assignments. More times than not, Wilson was a key contributor to those cashing.

On the other side of the equation, Hendricks is someone typically helpful for unders, especially within the Friendly Confines given his strong home splits.

But in this particular spot, he’s actually entering unchartered waters, having not started since April 7 after he was scratched from his last outing due to experiencing COVID-19 symptoms. He didn’t have it but just that blip in his routine could be enough to affect the right-hander — who is very reliant on precision and feel compared to blowing people away — as he’s worked on this much rest only one other time in his career.

As it is, he’ll already be challenged, having to battle a world-beating Braves batting order that has, unsurprisingly, produced desirable offensive numbers in the early going. They’re hot right now, too, plating four or more runs in all but one of their last eight games. Cranking out a similar result while the Cubs take their hacks at Wilson figures to weave the right recipe for a high score.

MLB Expert Picks

Over 9 @ +100 (Click to bet)

MLB Free Picks

The Major League Baseball season is in full swing now as we’re a little over a week into the season. You can find Mr. Over/Under, Matt Zylbert, on OddsChecker throughout the season, providing us with his in-depth breakdown and pick on the total for all his plays.

Be on the lookout for Matt’s picks, along with our weekly Major League Baseball betting market video from John Laghezza and Jamie Kelton. On OddsChecker, we bring you the best expert picks and up-to-the-minute odds for all things MLB.

Check out the latest MLB betting odds Here

Sunday's MLB Leans

Indians-Reds Under 7

Giants-Marlins Under 8

Pirates-Brewers Under 8

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 8-9, -2.07 units

Yesterday’s Result: Blue Jays-Royals Under 7 — Game 1 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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