MLB Picks: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres Over/Under

Matt Zylbert is back with his pick for Monday's MLB slate
Matt Zylbert
Mon, April 19, 1:40 PM EDT

MLB Picks

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres

Over/Under: 7

First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Brandon Woodruff (0-0, 2.12 ERA) vs. Joe Musgrove (2-1, 0.47 ERA)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres

The nickname “Joe Cool” will forever be taken by Joe Montana but if there’s one baseball player worthy of wearing that moniker, it would have to be Musgrove.

Yeah, yeah. It’s only been three starts for the new Padres right-hander but how could you not be mystified and impressed? Not only does Musgrove hold a stellar 24-2 K/BB ratio in his 19 innings of work thus far while allowing only a single run, this man is also the proud artist of the first no-hitter in franchise history.

Musgrove is from California and it feels like it may be destiny that the six-year veteran is emerging as a frontline starter As highlighted plenty, sometimes all it takes is a change of scenery for someone to break out and that’s been exactly so in the case of Musgrove. And remember, he wasn’t even bad at all previously, either.

Funny enough, Musgrove wasn’t even close to being heralded as the club’s biggest or even second-biggest acquisition (Yu Darvish, Blake Snell) for the rotation. Yet here he is just dominating, being second among all starters in ERA (0.47) and WHIP (0.47). His microscopic .109 batting average against ranks as the third-lowest mark.

I like Mushrove to keep it moving along, and the same can be said of his counterpart tonight, Woodruff, who is also out to his own sensational start this year.

Of course, Woodruff has been crafting the makings of a top-of-the-staff guy for a little while now. Don’t forget he was 11-3 en route to punching 10.58 K/9 in his first full campaign starting only two years ago. Then last season, he registered career-best numbers (3.05 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, .204 BAA, 11.12 K/9) all across the board, not to mention an exceptional playoff start opposite the eventual champion Los Angeles Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw.

San Diego — or ‘Slam Diego’ as they transformed into a season ago — boasts one of the most potent lineups in the league but given how Woodruff has continued to surge out of the gate, it’s an assignment he can handle. Look for superior pitching to dictate the outcome. 

MLB Expert Picks

UNDER 7 @ -125 (Click to bet)

MLB Free Picks

The Major League Baseball season is in full swing now. You can find Mr. Over/Under, Matt Zylbert, on OddsChecker throughout the season, providing us with his in-depth breakdown and pick on the total for all his plays.

Be on the lookout for Matt’s picks, along with our weekly Major League Baseball betting market video from John Laghezza and Jamie Kelton. On OddsChecker, we bring you the best expert picks and up-to-the-minute odds for all things MLB.

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Monday's MLB Leans

Rays-Royals Under 7.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 9-9, -1.07 units

Yesterday’s Result: Braves-Cubs Over 9 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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