MLB Picks: Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants Over/Under

Matt Zylbert is back with his pick for Friday's MLB slate
Matt Zylbert
Fri, April 23, 9:40 AM EDT

MLB Picks

Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants

Over/Under: 7

First pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Sandy Alcantara (0-1, 3.28 ERA) vs. Alex Wood (1-0, 0.00 ERA)

Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants

When handicapping starting pitchers slated to face the same lineup in consecutive outings, extra precautions need to be taken in evaluating whether or not said starters can remain difficult to hit.

In the case of this second meeting of a four-game set between the Marlins and Giants — after both clubs just collided in Miami last weekend — I think each hurler set to take their next turn can be trusted.

Alcantara did not come away with his fourth straight quality start to begin the season in his most recent assignment against these Giants (though he would’ve had it if he was taken out after the sixth), the 25-year-old still shined regardless. He had strung together six scoreless frames before San Fran got to him in the seventh.

And here’s the beauty of that: three of the main culprits in that surge at the end of Alcantara’s line — Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford — are all questionable with injuries tonight. Furthermore, another regular, Donovan Solano, is also sidelined at the moment.

As it is, the Giants sport a pretty weak offense, plating the fourth-fewest runs per game (3.63) in the National League to date — and even that current mark seems ambitious considering they currently rank ahead of the New York Mets and San Diego Padres (which definitely won’t last).

Making this more enticing for Alcantara is the fact that San Francisco’s very pitcher-friendly home, Oracle Park, will be the host site. Interestingly, under bets are out to a 6-1 start in Giants games there, with just a measly 4.71 total runs being scored.

This evening’s contest by The Bay will also be the home debut for Wood, who had a successful first 2021 start (not to mention team debut) opposite the Marlins only five days ago. He ended up spinning five shutout innings while scattering three baserunners, looking good in the triumph.

The nine-year veteran has been around awhile and was coming off a lower back strain prior to his first appearance of the year but it seems pretty clear that as long as he is healthy, Wood can still be an effective Major League pitcher. He’s still only 30-years-old after all (that’s not old).

Wood may not throw with ideal velocity but has a certain funkiness to his style that can continue to keep hitters off balance like his first time out. Helping his cause will be the fact that this is an opponent Wood has handled well in the past. For his career, Wood is 7-4 opposite the Fish in 16 games (13 starts) with a 2.60 ERA — that win total represents his most victories against one organization. Pick: UNDER 7 (-105)

MLB Expert Picks

UNDER 7 @ -105 (Click to bet)

MLB Free Picks

The Major League Baseball season is in full swing now. You can find Mr. Over/Under, Matt Zylbert, on OddsChecker throughout the season, providing us with his in-depth breakdown and pick on the total for all his plays.

Be on the lookout for Matt’s picks, along with our weekly Major League Baseball Friday night picks video from John Laghezza and Drew Martin on our YouTube channel. On OddsChecker, we bring you the best expert picks and up-to-the-minute odds for all things MLB.

Check out the latest MLB betting odds Here

Friday's MLB Leans

Royals-Tigers Under 8

Blue Jays-Rays Under 7

Rangers-White Sox Under 8.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 11-10, -0.22 unit

Yesterday’s Result: Diamondbacks-Reds Under 9 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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