MLB Picks: Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros Over/Under

Matt Zylbert has a play on the total for Sunday's Angels vs. Astros game
Matt Zylbert
Sun, April 25, 9:27 AM EDT

MLB Picks

Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros

Over/Under: 8.5

First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Dylan Bundy (0-2, 4.50 ERA) vs. Lance McCullers (1-1, 5.27 ERA)

Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros

Uncharacteristic numbers out of the gate can be used to a bettor’s advantage, if able to pinpoint a return toward the norm.

In the case of both these starting pitchers, I think each can be relied upon to begin producing work more reminiscent of their respective talents. Bundy, for one, is already looking like the breakout revelation he was a year ago despite his current 4.50 ERA. Everything’s still there.

Bundy punched out a career best 9.9 K/9 last season, which actually ranked 15th in all of baseball among qualified starters. This year, he’s still sitting in that same spot (tied with Yu Darvish and Brady Singer), but with an even better mark (10.5 K/9). He’s been consistently doing it, too, racking up at least six strikeouts in all four of his starts, including a 10-K outing against the offense he’ll be seeing today.

The former No. 4 overall draft pick has also registered a 3.80 FIP, illustrating that he has indeed pitched better than what the stats may indicate. While he draws a hard-hitting opponent in this one, it’s a group that Bundy has real success facing.

In fact, every time Bundy’s seen them the last four years (six starts), the result has always remained the same: a quality start.

For me, it’s the same thing with McCullers, someone that’s poised to get in a groove and churn out more of their usual work.

Let’s try banking on him as a result in a date with the Mike Trout-less Angels. Obviously, that’s quite a significant blow.

What has me most invested in McCullers is that this will be a home assignment for the 27-year-old right-hander. Owner of some of the most contrasting home-and-road splits (and he’s been around seven years now), McCullers owns a pristine 2.66 ERA in 274 career innings at Minute Maid Park, while also posting a 4.93 ERA across 248.1 frames away from Houston.

At least one of the two starters has the potential for a standout showing. As long as the other hangs in there like I expect, that can factor into a lower-scoring affair. Pick:

MLB Expert Picks

UNDER 8.5 @ -105 (Click to bet)

MLB Free Picks

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Sunday's MLB Leans

Royals-Tigers Under 8

Blue Jays-Rays Under 7.5

Yankees-Indians Under 8

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 12-11, -0.27 unit

Yesterday’s Result: Blue Jays-Rays Under 8.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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