Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers Predictions: MLB Over/Under Picks

Monday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: No one is hotter than Burnes
Matt Zylbert
Mon, April 26, 3:45 PM EDT

Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers Predictions

Over/Under: 6.5

First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Trevor Rogers (2-1, 1.64 ERA) vs. Corbin Burnes (2-1, 0.37 ERA)

There have been several pitchers out to sensational starts all around the league. Two of those starters are slated to meet for tonight’s series opener in Milwaukee.

Perhaps no one has been better — even Jacob deGrom — than Burnes, who is having quite the April. The fourth-year right-hander trails only deGrom in ERA (0.37) and he also possesses the lowest WHIP (0.33) and batting average against (.098) of all qualified pitchers in baseball.

Most strikingly, Burnes is still in the process of etching Major League history. His 40 K’s to no walks represent the most strikeouts ever to begin a season without issuing a free pass — and he’s still going.

View odds for the game here. 

His strikeout rate (14.8 K/9) has also been insanely good, maintaining it consistently as well, having racked up at least nine punch-outs in all four of his outings. Burnes hasn’t even allowed a run since the first one, which has been the only run scored off the 26-year-old so far this year.

Simply put, no one is more locked in than Burnes right now and he’s exhibited no signs of slowing down anytime soon. That’s great news in terms of prognosticating his next assignment, opposite a Marlins club that holds the second-worst team OPS (.661) in the NL.

If Burnes is eventually going to have an off day, why would it come now out of nowhere against this particular offense that has trouble packing hits together? They likely can’t count on the long ball either, having cranked out the third-fewest homers. Burnes notably yielded just two taters all of last season in 59.2 innings.

Another arm that has gotten off to a roaring beginning in 2021 — yet is less heralded — belongs to Rogers, the impressive lefty who only debuted a year ago despite having not previously pitched above Double-A ball. Though he finished his freshman campaign with an unpleasing 6.11 ERA, Rogers definitely showed flashes of being a quality starter and has seemingly put it all together now.

At least that’s the reason you have to get from seeing as how he’s looked thus far. Half of his outings have clocked in as scoreless ones, and like his counterpart this evening, he’s been punching out batters at an enormous rate (12.68 K/9).

Rogers will have the opportunity to sustain that at a similar level in his next turn, taking on a Brewers lineup that strikes out plenty when facing southpaws. In fact, though it’s not a huge sample size, Milwaukee hitters are sitting down via the K once every 2.6 at-bats, which is still an alarming tendency during any timespan.

Rogers established himself quickly as a strikeout artist when he first arrived on the scene last year and is decisively maintaining that reputation. Figure he continues that at least another start against this bunch, and doing so alongside Burnes’ magic means the offense won’t be significantly active here.

Pick: UNDER 6.5 (-115)

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 13-11, +0.73 unit

Yesterday’s Result: Angels-Astros Under 8.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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