MLB Picks: Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers Over/Under

Matt Zylbert breaks down Wednesday's Marlins vs. Brewers game
Matt Zylbert
Wed, April 28, 8:53 AM EDT

MLB Picks

Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET

TV: MLB Network

Probable pitchers: Sandy Alcantara (0-2, 3.34 ERA) vs. Zack Godley (0-0, -.-- ERA)

Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers

At some point, he was going to be back in The Show. That day is today for Godley.

Like his counterpart this evening, Godley is someone I’ve liked upon first debuting as a big-leaguer. Unlike Alcantara, though, he hasn’t had long-term success.

There was 2017, when Godley registered career-best marks with a 3.37 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 155 innings. He enjoyed a 15-win campaign the following season but in the years since, it hasn’t been good.

Godley fell out of favor in Arizona and hasn’t been able to stick anywhere else. The shortened pandemic season was a disaster for the 31-year-old, as he mustered an 8.16 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in seven assignments (and one relief outing).

That came with the Boston Red Sox amidst some hard-hitting opponents. If Godley is ever going to return to relevancy — and I think he can — he’s going to have to ease his way back. Fortunately, he begins with a matchup he can handle.

Not only is Miami tied for the third-lowest team OPS (.675) in the National League, the Fish are also severely banged up right now, missing Starling Marte (rib) and Jazz Chisholm (hamstring). These injuries are huge in eliminating the Marlins’ running game, which is maybe their top strength.

So let’s give Godley a shot here against a downgraded offense that already doesn’t rank high in many categories. The total being 8 (and 7.5 in some spots) is indicative that Godley will be game today.

And of course, we have Alcantara on the other side. Many of you know of my affection for the Marlin ace — and this is already my third game with him this year.

Like one of the prior two, Alcantara will be pitching in the afternoon, something he’s maintained sparkling consistency at since first coming up a handful of seasons ago. In his career, he’s crafted a magnificent 2.65 ERA and 1.12 ERA during his daytime starts, easily besting the 4.14 ERA and 1.38 WHIP Alcantara has posted at night.

Being an early getaway-day affair after an evening tilt, the Brewers may be sitting a regular or two, at least. As it is, they’re still without former NL MVP Christian Yelich (back) and Lorenzo Cain (quad), meaning I’d anticipate Alcantara to sustain his strong opening to the season.

MLB Expert Picks

UNDER 8 @ -114 (Click to bet)

MLB Free Picks

The Major League Baseball season is in full swing now as we’re a little over a week into the season. You can find Mr. Over/Under, Matt Zylbert, on OddsChecker throughout the season, providing us with his in-depth breakdown and pick on the total for all his plays.

Be on the lookout for Matt’s picks, along with our weekly Major League Baseball betting market video from John Laghezza and Drew Martin. On OddsChecker, we bring you the best expert picks and up-to-the-minute odds for all things MLB.

Check out the latest MLB betting odds Here

Wednesday's MLB Leans

Red Sox-Mets Under 7

Rockies-Giants Under 7

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 14-12, +0.58 unit

Yesterday’s Result: Royals-Pirates Under 8 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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