San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies MLB Picks, Predictions & Odds (Monday, May 3)
Let’s kick this week of with some MLB picks for Monday, May 3. There are a couple of ways to pick baseball games. Sometimes you really like how a team is play offensively. They’re squaring up the ball and seeing it well, so you back them no matter what. But, occasionally you just need to fade a pitcher no matter how the opposing team is playing. Today’s Giants vs. Rockies MLB picks meet both these criteria.
The San Francisco Giants have been one of the best surprises of the early 2021 MLB season. At 17-11 overall, they lead an NL West division that was expected to be dominated by the Dodgers and Padres. Will they keep this up? Probably not. But, they’re playing really good baseball right now.
As for the Rockies, they have been bad, but that’s to be expected when you trade an All-World third baseman in the prime of his career in the offseason. At 10-18, they’re last in the division and look pretty hopeless.
No matter who was on the mound for the Rockies tonight, you probably wouldn’t want to bet them. But, the way German Marquez has been pitching of late, he’s a hard fade in my book based on a bunch of different numbers. Let’s take a look.
Marquez was really solid in last year’s abbreviated season. He racked up a 3.75 ERA in 81.2 innings and looked to be one of the upcoming live arms to watch. But, this season has been a major step back for Marquez.
In 2020, his fastball averaged 96 MPH, this year it’s down to 95.3 MPH. He’s walking an absolutely insane 5.23 batters per nine innings and giving up home runs at a higher clip than he did in 2020. His 1.47 WHIP is a full .2 points higher than last year. In 2020, Marquez struck out almost three batters per walk (2.92) this year that number is down to 1.74.
If all that wasn’t enough to convince you, in 9.2 innings against the Giants this year he’s given up 7 earned runs, and here are the career numbers against Marquez for some Giants hitters.
- Brandon Crawford: .360 BA, 2 XBH, 1 HR
- Buster Posey: .333 BA, 2 XBH, 1 HR
- Brandon Belt: .409 BA, 3 XBH
- Alex Dickerson: .500 BA, 3 XBH
We may not see Brandon Crawford today, as he’s been day-to-day. But the point remains that I don’t expect much from Marquez against this lineup or at all right now.
Add that to the fact that Aaron Sanchez, who has been great this year, is on the mound for the Giants and this seems like a no-brainer, especially with the Giants at better-than-even odds on Monday.
Monday’s San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Picks
Pick: Giants ML @ +112 (Click to bet)
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