MLB Picks: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets Over/Under

Matt Zylbert closes out the work week with a pick for Dbacks vs. Mets
Matt Zylbert
Fri, May 7, 9:59 AM EDT

MLB Picks

Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Zac Gallen (1-1, 3.48 ERA) vs. David Peterson (1-3, 4.81 ERA)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets

Don’t be misled by that 4.81 ERA currently held by Peterson. Outside of a blemish of a start in his season debut, the second-year southpaw is actually performing fine.

In fact, since that rough first assignment, Peterson’s made four starts and allowed three earned runs or fewer in all while yielding no more than four hits. One of his most impressive showings during this run came his last time out, when he stifled the Philadelphia Phillies with eight strikeouts.

Peterson appears to be in a rhythm and will now tangle with a relatively weak lineup that is still missing its best player, Ketel Marte (hamstring). Arizona has been hitting left-handers well in the early going but I think that’s more of a mirage than anything, especially with the current state of their offense. Last year they were tied for the second-lowest team OPS (.667) opposite lefties in the National League.

Pinpointing an upward trend by Peterson is vital to a potential low-scoring outcome in this opener. Meanwhile, that type of steadiness is to be expected from Gallen.

After all, as I’ve covered more than enough times, the 25-year-old owns the Major League record — by a good margin, too — for most consecutive starts (24) giving up three or fewer runs to begin a career. That incredible streak is no longer active but it hasn’t stopped Gallen from continuing to operate as a quality pitcher.

Though his season was delayed a bit due to injury, Gallen has seamlessly jumped back into the saddle with no issues. His most recent outing was a rare instance where the opposition did indeed get to Gallen for more than three runs — but was just the first time this season in four tries.

For the most part, Gallen is pitching as well as he did as his first two years in the bigs. He’s constructed a 27-10 K/BB ratio in his 20.2 frames, representing his highest strikeout rate (11.76 K/9) to date.

Additionally, Gallen is limiting batters to a minuscule .182 mark. Combine that along with the fact that only one player’s taken the right-hander deep and it could translate to more plate struggles for NY.

MLB Expert Picks

Pick: UNDER 7.5 @ -125 (Click to bet)

Friday's MLB Leans

Dodgers-Angels Under 8.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 16-16-2, -2.05 units

Yesterday’s Result: Astros-Yankees Under 7.5 (“loss”)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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