Monday, May 10 MLB Picks – Texas Rangers vs. San Francisco Giants
Monday kicks off an interleague series between the Texas Rangers and San Francisco Giants. If you told even the most diehard Giants fan they’d be leading the NL West this far into the season, they wouldn’t have believed you. But, here we are with San Francisco atop the division with a 20-14 record, one of the best in baseball.
As for the Texas Rangers, the team started off slow but has been on a tear of late. The Rangers won back-to-back games against the Mariners on Saturday and Sunday, winning the series 2-1. Texas is 7-3 in their last 10 games and has worked their way back to .500 at 18-18 on the season.
Rangers Odds: +135 (Click to bet)
Giants Odds: -140 (Click to bet)
Over/Under: 7.5 – Over: +115; Under: -118
Starting Pitchers: Rangers: Kyle Gibson (3-0, 2.40 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 35 strikeouts, 13 walks) Giants: Alex Wood (3-0, 1.96 ERA, 0.78 WHIP 22 strikeouts, 5 walks)
Start Time: 9:45 PM ET
Like I said, it’s been a good stretch for the Rangers of late and a lot of that has to do with Monday’s starting pitcher, Kyle Gibson. Since giving up five runs in just 0.1 IP to the Royals in an Opening Day 14-10 loss, he’s been on a tear.
In six starts since Opening Day, Kyle Gibson has allowed just six earned runs for the Texas Rangers and has gone 3-0. He’s worked his WHIP down to 1.04 and struck out 35 batters while walking just 13 this year.
On offense, the Rangers have been putting up solid numbers is 2021. They’re 10th in the majors in runs, third in hits and home runs and 5th in batting average. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been awesome so far, and second-year player Nick Solak is making fans in Arlington believe he’s the real deal. Plus, Adolis Garcia is hitting the cover off the ball with nine home runs, tied for fourth in the majors.
San Francisco Giants
Sure, Kyle Gibson has been good, but starting pitcher Alex Wood has been unbeatable for the San Francisco Giants. He doesn’t have a huge K rate, but Wood is rarely giving up hits and almost never walks batters. He hasn’t pitched enough innings to qualify, but if he had, his 0.78 WHIP would rank tied for 6th in the majors with Max Scherzer.
His last time out was his worst outing of the season as he allowed a whopping two earned runs in Colorado. Will Wood sustain this throughout the entire regular season? Probably not. But right now, Alex Wood is one of the best pitchers in the MLB.
The Giants are +27 in run differential this season with 151 runs scored are 124 runs against. Buster Posey seems as though he’s found the fountain of youth while guys like Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford provide the power needed to lead the NL West to this point.
MLB Picks – Texas Rangers vs. San Francisco Giants Pick
I feel comfortable betting against neither of these pitcher tonight. Kyle Gibson has been unbelievable since his Opening Day blunder and Alex Wood just doesn’t give up runs, hits or walks. The bad news is, someone is going to have to lose.
But, I’m not going to make an outright play on this game since I think both pitchers will look great. However, I will make a play on the over/under. The total for the game is currently 7.5 runs, but as a Phillies fan I have bullpen-related trust issues. So, I’m backing under 3.5 runs in the first five innings at a juicy +100 price.
I’m not entirely concerned about Gibson’s last start against the Twins where he gave up three runs in the first five innings. It is the lone blip on an otherwise great showing since Opening Day. Neither of these lineups have extensive history against the opposing pitcher. They’ll need time to figure out what Wood and Gibson are featuring and this will lead to a lot of weak hit ground balls and rough looking ABs.
The Pick: Under 3.5 Runs F5 @ +100 (Click to bet)