Phillies vs. Nationals Picks - Tuesday, May 11
The NL East is a highly competitive division once again. The problem for the teams within the division is that the reason it’s been competitive is they all stink. The New York Mets lead the division at 16-13 and their .552 winning percentage is the worst in baseball for a first place team.
On Tuesday, the Phillies and Nationals open up a series in Washington D.C. The Nationals are in last place in the NL East at 13-17. Meanwhile, the Phillies are a game above .500 (18-17) and just a game behind the Mets. This one means a lot to both these teams so we should get a lot of solid play from both sides. Let’s take a look at Phillies vs. Nationals picks for Tuesday, May 11.
Phillies Odds: +120 (Click to bet)
Nationals Odds: -130 (Click to bet)
Over/Under: 9 – Over: +102; Under: -115
Starting Pitchers: Phillies: Chase Anderson (1-3, 5.54 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 21 strikeouts, 14 walks) Nationals: Erick Fedde (2-3, 5.27 ERA, 1.32 WHIP 28 strikeouts, 13 walks)
Start Time: 7:05 PM ET
This year was supposed to be different. The Phillies bullpen was supposed to be much improved from last year. Instead, they have a 4.92 ERA to start the year, good for 26th in Major League Baseball.
As for Friday’s starting pitcher, Chase Anderson, he’s been awful in 2021. He has a 5.54 ERA this season and three of his six starts this season have come against the Mets, who have the worst offense in baseball.
Anderson has given up fewer than two runs just one time this year, and the kicker is he’s yet to pitch more than five innings in a starts, a recipe for disaster for a team with one of the worst bullpens on the planet.
To make matters worse, an offensive unit that was supposed to carry this team is below average so far in 2021. Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins are playing good ball. But, the Phillies still don’t have a center fielder and are waiting for the players around their core three to start hitting the baseball.
Tuesday’s starting pitcher for Washington, Erick Fedde, has had a season much like Phillies starter Chase Anderson. He doesn’t go deep into games and while pitcher wins is a largely useless stat, he is still looking for his first W of the year.
The good news for Fedde is he dominates this Phillies lineup. In 98 ABs against these Phillies hitters, Fedde is allowing just a .224 batting average and .304 on-base percentage.
Washington’s offense has hit the ball well, they’re 7th in the majors is batting average, but they can’t get runs across the plate. The only team that scores fewer runs than the Nationals is the New York Mets.
Trea Turner continues to be one of the best shortstops in baseball as he’s hitting .308 with 7 home runs and a.517 slugging percentage.
The issue for the Nationals is Juan Soto has been hurt and they haven’t gotten the production they expected from Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber. But, Soto should be in the lineup tonight.
MLB Picks – Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction
Betting on either of these starting pitchers seems like a tough ask on the surface, but I think the Nationals, with Fedde on the mound and the far superior bullpen, get the win tonight.
Like I said, Fedde has been bad this year but he’s thrown the ball well against these hitters in the past throughout his career. On the other end, Chase Anderson has struggled in pretty much every start this season and has shown no ability to eat innings. That means we’re going to probably get at least four innings from a Phillies bullpen that quite simply can’t get outs.
On paper, this Phillies lineup is more talented than the Nationals hitters, but we’re yet to see anyone other than Harper, Hoskins or Realmuto make a difference. If this was Zack Wheeler, Zach Eflin or Aaron Nola on the mound, I’d be riding with the Phillies. But, the bottom half of their rotation makes me nervous, so I’m taking the Nationals outright.
The Pick: Nationals ML @ -130 (Click to bet)