Padres vs. Rockies Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

Matt Zylbert is back to pick Wednesday's Padres vs. Rockies game
Matt Zylbert
Wed, May 12, 7:45 AM EDT

Padres vs. Rockies Prediction

Over/Under: 7

First pitch: 3:10 p.m. ET

TV: MLB Network

Probable pitchers: Yu Darvish (3-1, 2.27 ERA) vs. Jon Gray (4-2, 3.12 ERA)

San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies (Game 1)

Totals emanating from Coors Field need to be thoroughly vetted before taking action, perhaps more so than such bets from any other ballpark. In today’s opener of a doubleheader, though, there looks to be a decisive case for scoring on the low side.

Darvish — my pick entering the campaign to win this year’s National League Cy Young Award — is living up to expectations in his first season as a Padre. After a shaky team debut on Opening Day, the 34-year-old fired off five straight quality starts in which he allowed only one run in each. Darvish fell an out shy of attaining another one in his last outing but he still was sharp once again.

That’s exactly what to expect from the 6-foot-5, 215-pound pitching wizard, even in such a tough environment. Darvish figures to also benefit from this being a doubleheader affair, meaning not only is he very capable of covering the whole game, but he’ll also be dealing with a Rockies lineup that is probably down a regular or two, at least. Darvish already gets to dodge the injured C.J. Cron (back).

Being as consistent as they get, an under is always in good hands when Darvish is one of the two probables, especially when it’s his right arm that will be on display even more relative to the seven innings.

Then there’s Gray, who we are arguably getting in a better spot than we would be if he were working on the road. Wait what?

Unlike most Rockies hurlers throughout time, Gray is one of the select few that actually excels more when taking the mound in his team’s hitter-friendly ballpark. In fact, the former No. 3 overall draft pick has literally painted a better ERA at home than on the road in each of his full big-league seasons (discounting only last year and his debut one, both of which he only made less than 10 starts in).

Like his counterpart this afternoon, Gray is churning out some real steady production and has been doing so since his first turn in the rotation. This actually might be his best work to date, actually, considering he’s been tagged for more than three runs in a start only once in seven tries. His strikeout rate (8.48 K/9) is down a touch from where it usually is but on the bright side, it’s a significant improvement from last year’s horror show when he only logged a pathetic 5.08 K/9.

Gray’s never been an All-Star but this season appears to represent his best shot at earning the nod. I expect him to maintain that form opposite a Padres lineup that is without its most explosive player, Fernando Tatis (COVID-19), and might be resting another regular or two.

Combine that with the usual mastery of Darvish and pitching will seemingly emerge in this first game of a twin bill.

MLB Picks

Pick: UNDER 7 @ -121

MLB Leans - Wednesday, May 12

Orioles-Mets Under 7.5

Royals-Tigers Under 8

Mariners-Dodgers Under 8

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 17-20-2, -5.77 units

Yesterday’s Result: Twins-White Sox Under 8 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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