Monday’s Phillies vs. Marlins game features two teams with extremely similar records. But, one would likely call this season disappointing while the other never expected to compete anyway. The Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins kick off a four-game series on Monday. So, let’s dig into some Phillies vs. Marlins predictions.
Any Philadelphia Phillies analysis comes down to one simple question. Who is pitching? If it’s Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola or maybe even Zach Eflin, they’ve got a chance to win. If it’s literally anyone else, they’re likely dead in the water.
The good news for the Phillies is Eflin is scheduled to make the start on Monday. The bad news is the very last time he took the mound, he lost to the Marlins, 3-1. Eflin is 2-3 on the season with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. He has 57 strikeouts to just five walks. He absolutely pounds the strike zone, which has been a curse and a blessing.
When Eflin’s stuff is on, he has hitters swinging and missing once ahead in the count. When his stuff is flat and fastball not reaching top velocity, he’s very hittable because he’s always around the plate. The problem with making a Phillies vs. Marlins prediction is we just don’t know which version of Eflin we’re going to see.
As for the Phillies offense, it’s been up and down this season, making it even harder to make a pick here, especially when you consider who is starting for Miami.
Trevor Rogers has been one of the most hyped pitching prospects in the Marlins organization for some time. Last season, he made his pro debut and honestly left a lot to be desired. This season, Rogers is absolutely dominating almost every hitter he faces.
The 23-year old lefty is 6-2 overall with an insane 1.74 ERA, good for fifth in the majors, and a 1.05 WHIP, ranking 23rd. His 65 strikeouts are 13th in Major League Baseball. He has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the game over the first two months of the season, and I’m not sure how many people expected that this season.
Last time out against the Phillies, just five days ago, Rodgers went 7 2/3 innings, giving up one earned run and walking just two while striking out eight. He dominated. Why would Monday be any different?
When this team gets Sixto Sanchez back in the rotation, that 1-2 punch at the top could be a real issue for opposing teams. The lineup still leaves a lot to be desired. But, guys like Adam Duvall, Jesus Aguilar and Garrett Cooper have shown some pop while Jazz Chisholm continues to rake.
Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction
The Phillies need to win as many Eflin, Wheeler and Nola starts as possible because the rest of the rotation isn’t helping them. Until Spencer Hoard gets the call, this is essentially a three-man rotation. Unfortunately, Trevor Rogers is just a better pitcher than Eflin. Last time these two teams met with Rogers on the hill, the Marlins won 3-1. That same score sounds about right for what we can expect on Monday night. So, not only am I taking the Marlins on the moenyline, but I’m also hammering the under because neither of these offensive units can really hit the ball with any consistency.
Phillies vs. Marlins Predictions & Picks
Marlins ML @ -124
Phillies/Marlins Under 7 Runs @ -120