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Matt Zylbert is back with his picks for Saturday's Brewers vs. Nationals game

MLB Picks

Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals (Game 1)

Over/Under: 6

First pitch: 2:05 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Freddy Peralta (4-1, 2.54 ERA) vs. Patrick Corbin (3-3, 6.13 ERA)

Brewers vs. Nationals Predictions

Many bettors are probably wondering, “Why is Patrick Corbin still commanding this type of respect?” Or at least, those pondering what to do with a total wager.

But it makes sense. Corbin wasn’t going to be bad all season after getting out to a horrific beginning in his first four starts, when the 10-year vet owned a 10.47 ERA.

Since then, he’s trimmed that number almost in half, contributing, at least, serviceable work each time out. That’s what I’m shooting for here, as all it will take is five fine innings en route to paving the way for the Majors’ 10th-ranked bullpen swallowing the last two frames. This is a seven-inning doubleheader bout.

One of the main reasons for Corbin’s downfall is a career-worst strikeout rate

(6.89 K/9). However, I don’t see that sustaining — he’s been well above that for far too long — and this spot could be of use for the southpaw in draining out some K’s. The Brewers punch out once every 3.1 at-bats against left-handed pitching, not to mention their .219 average in that area ranks third-worst in the National League.

That’ll be the biggest challenge in scoring an under here but I think Corbin can at least hang for a shortened affair while on a bit of an upward trend. Meanwhile, there need not be stress with the other starter.

Peralta has been simply terrific this year and is actually making a legit bid at an All-Star berth. Aside from being 4-1 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, the soon-to-be 25-year-old is holding opposing hitters to a microscopic .140 (!) average. That’s even lower than ace teammates Brandon Woodruff (.143) and Corbin Burnes (.152), and registers as the second-lowest BAA among all MLB starting pitchers behind only — who else? — Jacob deGrom (.136).

The strikeouts are as plentiful as ever for Peralta, given he’s notching 13.77 K/9. He’s shown this high-end potential plenty of times before and is simply hitting his stride now as a starter. Capitalize on him.

Pick: UNDER 6 @ -101

MLB Leans

Orioles-White Sox Under 5.5 (Game 2)

Yankees-Tigers Under 8.5

Rangers-Mariners Under 8.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “29-25-2,” +0.58 unit

Yesterday’s Result: Reds-Cubs Under 6.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


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