MLB Predictions and Picks - Thursday, June 3
Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies
First pitch: 3:10 p.m. ET
TV: MLB Network (joined in progress)
Probable pitchers: Mike Foltynewicz (1-5, 4.31 ERA) vs. Austin Gomber (3-5, 4.55 ERA)
Hmm, fairly intriguing call on the part of the linesmakers to hang a 10.5 total here in a matchup featuring two fine starters.
Of course, games emanating from hitter-friendly Coors Field will always draw a higher over/under than anywhere else (with the exception of windy Wrigley Field games where the wind is considerably blowing out), but this particular number is a tad bit inflated than anticipated. For comparison, it’s listed as a full run higher than Tuesday’s series opener between Dane Dunning and German Marquez.
The two probables slated to conclude this series command more respect than that given they are not actually far off from that pair of aforementioned predecessors.
Foltynewicz doesn’t have a desirable record at 1-5 but he’s definitely pitched better than that. The former Atlanta Braves has been working his way back from being designated for assignment by his old club early last year, and with a respectable 4.31 ERA, he’s getting closer.
This might be Folty hitting his stride right now, considering the eighth-year right-hander is coming off back-to-back impressive quality starts, his first time notching two in a row since the end of ‘19.
The K’s haven’t been there, as evident in his career-low strikeout rate (6.32 K/9) but Foltynewicz is still getting by on his solid stuff. Though a date at Coors Field isn’t really ideal for any pitcher, I still like Folty to at least churn out something decent opposite a currently-downgraded Rockies lineup. They’re currently without their most potent hitter Trevor Story (elbow) and C.J. Cron is getting a day off as well.
Then there’s Gomber, the club’s “main haul” from this past offseason’s curious Nolan Arenado trade. Despite not really living up to lofty expectations from that just yet, Gomber actually hasn’t been bad.
If you take out one really explosive outing in which the left-hander was bombed for nine runs in less than two innings, Gomber owns a pristine 3.23 ERA in his 10 other starts, nine of which he held the opposition to just three or fewer runs.
That’s actually remarkable when you think about it for a Rockies pitcher. And on top of that, he’s pitching well at Coors Field, where he holds a stingy 1.88 ERA, albeit in three assignments but that’s still notable.
See, he really hasn’t been bad at all, hence why for the season, batters are hitting .215 off the 27-year-old southpaw.
Being a getaway-day game after a night affair, Gomber figures to — like his counterpart — get a boost from a regular or two sitting on the other side. There surprisingly weren’t many runs in the first couple of meetings between these squads and I suspect that will hold for the finale.
Pick: UNDER 10.5 @ -107
Red Sox-Astros Over 9
Diamondbacks-Brewers Over 9
Twins-Royals Under 9.5
Mariners-Angels Under 9
2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “32-26-3,” +2.43 units
Yesterday’s Result: Padres-Cubs Under 7 (Push)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit