Brewers vs. Reds Prediction - June 9
Tuesday, June 9, 2021 – 7:10pm EST
Great American Ballpark
Brewers vs. Reds Probable Pitchers
- Brewers: Brett Anderson (2-3, 4.42 ERA)
- Reds: Vladimir Gutierrez (1-1, 2.70 ERA)
Brewers vs. Reds Prediction
Brett Anderson will take the mound for the Brewers after a brutal outing in his last start, where he allowed eight hits, three runs, one home run in 4.1 innings against the Diamondbacks.
Anderson has thrown five starts in May and June combined and has only pitched through the fourth inning in one of those games. Sure, one of those games was to help Anderson come back from injury but the others were due to his poor performance.
In those five starts, Anderson is striking out just 12.3 percent of batters and walking 8.6 percent of them. He’s allowing plenty of runners on base and so much power from the left and right-handed side since returning to action.
As a ground ball pitcher, he’s still getting 50.8 percent but when he’s truly on his game, that number becomes 55-60 percent for Anderson. Instead, he’s giving up 57.1 percent hard contact in those five games. Even hard contact on the ground will become base hits because of how fast the exit velocity of the ball is off the bat.
The Reds will likely welcome Joey Votto back in the lineup against Anderson, who has been crushed by lefties as of late for power. Votto, will likely bat clean-up, in the four spot behind a trio of Jonathan India, Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos.
The Reds haven’t faced many lefties as of late but when they have, they’ve crushed them. Every single batter in the projected lineup has crushed lefties when given the chance recently.
In the last 30 days, Nick Castellanos is hitting .467 against lefties with three doubles and just two strikeouts in 16 plate appearances. India is hitting .357 with a home run and just one strike out.
Outside of the hottest hitter in Nick Castellanos, each player on the Reds, outside of Votto, have hit a home run against a left-handed batter in the last 30 days. That includes Tyler Stephenson, Jesse Winker, Kyle Farmer, Eugenio Suarez and SScott Heineman. And of course, Votto always has potential to go yard.
On the flip side, Vladimir Gutierrez will take the mound for the third time this season for the Reds. He’s got a 2.70 ERA on the year but an XFIP of 7. That’s due to the fact that he’s striking out just 15 percent of batters while walking 12.5 percent of batters.
It’s only been two starts for Gutierrez but the low strikeouts and high walks will bite him sooner than later. So far, he’s allowed just three earned runs in 10 innings with five hits, five walks and six strikeouts.
The Brewers lineup has plenty of power against righties but are also walking 11.1 percent of the time with the projected lineup. As long as the Brewers work counts and get on base, the Brewers should be able to get some big extra base hits with runners in scoring position. The Brewers haven’t been hitting the ball on the ground against righties and have some hard hit potential in the lineup with five guys hitting righties hard in the last 30 days.
The weather is slightly an issue here but if the game gets played and the rain goes away, the over is live for this one.
MLB Picks - Brewers vs. Reds
The Pick: Over 9.5 @ -110 ( Click to Bet)
Brewers vs. Reds Moneyline Odds
- Milwaukee Brewers to win @ +101
- Cincinnati Reds to win @ +100
Brewers vs. Reds Run Line Odds
- Milwaukee Brewers - 1 @ +120
- Cincinnati Reds +1 @ -143
Brewers vs. Reds Over/Under Odds
- Over 9.5 @ -110
- Under 9.5 @ +107