Padres vs. Mets Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

Matt Zylbert continues to stay hot and looks to keep his insane run up with a Mets vs. Padres pick for Friday
Matt Zylbert
Fri, June 11, 9:57 AM EDT

Padres vs. Mets Prediction

San Diego Padres at New York Mets

Over/Under: 6

First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

TV: MLB Network

Probable pitchers: Blake Snell (2-2, 4.83 ERA) vs. Jacob deGrom (5-2, 0.62 ERA)

Padres vs. Mets

What else is there to say about deGrom?

The man is having one of the all-time great seasons in Major League history (and he would finish with a sub-1.00 ERA had this been the distance of the 2020 campaign) for any MLB starting pitcher.

Yet it still feels like the linesmakers are not treating it with the proper respect based on the over/under they’ve come up with for this series opener. After all, deGrom attracted the lowest-possible total (for a nine-inning game) of 5.5 just a few weeks ago in a date with the Colorado Rockies, and while the Padres possess the more dangerous lineup, the fact that they, too, are rolling with a top-of-the-rotation starter probably shouldve merited a 5.5.

No matter, we’ll do our best to capitalize before the books potentially change course and tick that number a half-run down. I can see it’s already 5.5 in some spots, so make sure you find that 6 tag.

deGrom is simply unstoppable right now. He’s leading the league in, well, basically everything of note, having the best ERA (0.62!!), WHIP (0.57), strikeout rate (14.4 K/9), and batting average against (.128).

Of course, the one suspect item related to deGrom’s outlook tonight — other than San Diego carrying some heavy bats — is that this will be the right-hander’s second consecutive outing opposing the Padres.

As I’ve written about before, teams generally fare better in the second meeting when they see a starter twice within a week span due to increased familiarity with their stuff. But with someone as almighty as deGrom, does it really even matter? In fact, for his career, any instance in which the eight-year vet saw the same foe in back-to-back starts, he allowed more than two earned runs only once on the back-end of the pair.

Put your trust — and money — into deGrom and watch comfortably. The same could be said of his counterpart this evening, Snell, a fellow former Cy Young.

Yes, that 4.83 ERA is very uncharacteristic of the former Tampa Bay Ray but that was mostly the result of two straight shaky outings that saw him yield a whopping 12 runs combined. That, clearly, was a fluke.

Snell proved as such his last time out against these Mets when he snapped that skid in authoritative fashion. Not only did he go seven innings for the first time in more than two years (!), he kept New York off the scoreboard and scattered just two baserunners while punching out 10 for his second double-digit strikeout performance of the year. Snell is back.

Not that he ever left but it’s a strong sign to me that he’s back in a rhythm. Being a prideful pitcher, Snell is only getting hungrier to churn out production more in line with his usual work. Facing the Mets again can help him accomplish this cause.

Though the Mets are getting healthier at the dish, they’re still missing some key regulars. And overall, they own the National League’s fourth-lowest team OPS (.673) against left-handed pitchers.

MLB Picks

Pick: UNDER 6 @ -115

MLB Leans

Rockies-Reds Under 9

Mariners-Indians Under 9

Blue Jays-Red Sox Over 9.5

Rangers-Dodgers Under 8

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “37-28-3,” +5.26 units

Yesterday’s Result: Braves-Phillies Under 8 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
0Betslip

Almost there!

We are loading your bets, and they will be here in a second.