White Sox vs. Tigers Prediction - June 12
Saturday, June 12, 2021 – 4:10pm EST
White Sox vs. Tigers Probable Pitchers
- White Sox: Dylan Cease (4-2, 3.36 ERA)
- Tigers: Jose Urena (2-5, 4.25 ERA)
White Sox vs. Tigers Prediction
We just saw this match up less than a week ago. The White Sox knocked off the Tigers behind Dylan Cease who gave Chicago seven innings, 10 strikeouts along with one walk and no runs in a 3-0 win.
Urena, on the other hand, allowed six hits and three runs with two walks and one strikeout and took the loss.
Urena has been surprisingly bad in the last 30 days. He’s rocking an XFIP of 6.37 and is striking out just 5.8 percent of batters. That’s not even a typo.
Urena has struck out two or less batters in his last four starts and three or less in his last five starts. On top of that, Urena has only finished six innings once in those games and has allowed multiple runs in every game but one in the months, May and June.
The struggles are coming from both sides in different ways. He’s allowing a weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .413 to righties and a .205 isolated power (ISO) in his last 42 plate appearances against righties. He’s striking out just 9.5 percent of those batters but has limited walks to 4.8 percent.
Against lefties, he’s allowing a .306 wOBA and an ISO of .150. Those numbers aren’t terrible but still not great. Beyond those numbers, he’s striking out just 2.3 percent of lefties and walking 9.1 percent of lefties.
The White Sox lineup is more than likely going to be balanced against Urena with four righties and five lefties in the projected lineup. This gives the White Sox a chance to exploit power from righties and walk rate against lefties.
The projected lineup is walking 13.1 percent of the time against righties in the last 30 days and have been able to work their way on base with a wOBA of .346. There’s a good chance we see Brian Goodwin get his first start of the season, as a lefty, against Urena.
There are no numbers on him this season but last season, he was way better against righties, holding an on-base percentage of .325. He's a bench player and doesn’t have the most insane stats but he gives the team a solid fielder and some speed if he’s able to get on.
On the other hand, Dylan Cease will take the hill for the White Sox. Again, he was brilliant in his last outing against the Tigers where he went seven innings and allowed no runs with 10 strikeouts.
He’s very capable of doing that again, but this time he’ll be on the road. The Tigers bats have struggled against Cease throughout their careers and should struggle again tonight.
The Tigers lineup projects an ISO of .152 and wOBA of .294 while striking out 26.4 percent of the time in the last 30 days. On top of that, the Tigers don’t work out walks at a high clip.
Cease has a high walk rate to righties as of late, walking 15.8 percent and you’ll rarely see Cease induce a ground ball. However, batters still haven’t found their power against Cease so far this year.
Cease should perform but analytics share that he’s been a bit lucky throughout his last couple of seasons in the league. He has a high XFIP of 4.79 due to walking 9.4 percent of batters in the last 30 days.
The Tigers will get to see Cease again and there’s reason to believe that they’ll be able to at least do a little damage.
With that said, I want to trust Cease but I won’t. Instead, I’ll roll with the White Sox to get over on their team total of 5 via PointsBet at -115.
MLB Picks - White Sox vs. Tigers
The Pick: White Sox Team Total Over 5 @ -115
White Sox vs. Tigers Moneyline Odds
- Chicago White Sox to win @ -177
- Detroit Tigers to win @ +162
White Sox vs. Tigers Run Line Odds
- Chicago White Sox -1.5 @ -115
- Detroit Tigers +1.5 @ -104
White Sox vs. Tigers Over/Under Odds
- Over 9.5 @ +100
- Under 9.5 @ -110