Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction - June 13
Sunday, June 13, 2021 – 7:08pm EST
Cardinals vs. Cubs Probable Pitchers
- Cardinals: Carlos Martinez (3-6, 6.21 ERA)
- Cubs: Zach Davies (3-3, 4.45 ERA)
Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction
There’s nothing like a good rivalry between two teams on Sunday Night Baseball. That’s what we’ll be getting tonight between the Cubs and Cardinals.
What we’ll also be getting tonight are two bottom tier pitchers in Chicago where it should be humid and near 75 degrees at first pitch.
Carlos Martinez has allowed 15 runs in his last 4.2 innings. He’s walked five, allowed 13 hits and one home run in June along with those 15 runs.
You could give him a pass for his first blow up, as he came against the Dodgers. But blowing up against the Indians, allowing seven hits in four innings with five runs, is inexcusable. Not to say allowing 10 runs to the Dodgers is any better but they’re an insane lineup when healthy.
On the season, Martinez hasn’t struggled too badly with getting strikes as he’s walked just 8.3 percent of batters. But he has struggled with runners on base, only leaving 54.3 percent of runners on. That means that nearly half of the runners on base this season against Martinez are scoring. That’s a terrible rate. Currently he has a SIERA of 5 and an xFIP beyond 5.
As of late, he’s allowing a high weighted on-base average (wOBA) to righties and lefties but lefties have just a little more power against him recently. In the lineup for the Cubs, they’ll have Joc Pederson leading off as a lefty and Anthony Rizzo in the middle of the lineup, who is another lefty with serious power.
Jayson Heyward and rookie Sergio Alcantara would be at the bottom of the lineup. Again, both are lefties who can smack around sub-par righties.
On the flip side, Zach Davies will take the hill for the Cubs. He’s been just as awful if not worse on paper. He’s sporting a SIERA of 5.65, has an xFIP of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.57. He’s been much better with runners on base but he’s been hit extremely hard and thus his batting average of balls in play is sitting at .305 while also walkin 11.4 percent of batters.
Davies won’t surprise much and doesn’t have a high strikeout rate. He’s not even allowing many home runs but the hard contact is still there, in play and balls are falling for base hits.
The Cardinals offense is hitting just 34.8 percent of ground balls in the last 30 days against righties. Instead of ground balls, they’re hitting hard contact in the air and that should be big against Davies, who has allowed 40 percent of hard contact in his last 106 plate appearances.
The projected lineup is averaging an isolated power (ISO) of .183 and a wOBA of .339 against righties in the last 30 days. While they haven’t walked all that much, they’ve also limited strike outs to 21.5 percent during those 30 days.
The Cardinals will get on base and it’ll take just a couple clutch hits to score some runs early in this game. Right now, the Cardinals offense has a batting average of balls in play at .335. They’re finding grass too instead of gloves.
With that said, I love the over in this Sunday Night Baseball game. We’ve got two pitchers who haven’t looked their best this season and two offenses that are starting to break out just a bit.
Bullpen arms have been used in the last couple of games and therefore those arms will either have to pitch on little rest or other arms will have to make an appearance in this one, especially if either one of these pitchers have to exit early due to allowing a bunch of runs.
Let’s ride the over here.
MLB Picks - Cardinals vs. Cubs
The Pick: Over 9.5 @ -105
Cardinals vs. Cubs Moneyline Odds
- St. Louis Cardinals to win @ +115
- Chicago Cubs to win @ -124
Cardinals vs. Cubs Run Line Odds
- St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 @ -164
- Chicago Cubs -1.5 @ +155
Cardinals vs. Cubs Over/Under Odds
- Over 9.5 @ -104
- Under 9.5 @ -115