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Matt Zylbert is back with another MLB over/under for Sunday
ANALYSIS

MLB Picks - Dodgers vs. Rangers Prediction

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Dodgers

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET

TV: MLB Network

Probable pitchers: Dane Dunning (2-4, 4.26 ERA) vs. Walker Buehler (5-0, 2.56 ERA)

Dodgers vs. Rangers Prediction

Constants are a fun thing to dig out in gambling. The home consistency of Buehler since first coming up a handful of seasons ago certainly qualifies as such.

Did you know that in all but one of the right-hander’s 45 career starts at home (including playoffs), he went at least five innings? That’s a big deal knowing the starter can extend effective work throughout the majority of a ballgame, especially when it paves the way for a real quality bullpen. Buehler’s only once given up more than four runs in these dates, too.

It certainly is prevalent among his home-and-road splits, as the Vanderbilt product wields a pretty 2.43 ERA and 0.90 WHIP for his career at Dodger Stadium. Contrast that with the (still respectable) 3.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP he’s posted on the road and you get a strong tendency.

As important as anything, Buehler’s in a real groove right now, checking in today having registered five straight quality starts. He’s also notably logged at least six innings in all 12 of his starts this year.

Despite the Rangers’ offensive outburst last night, I still seeing Buehler providing his usual output in front of Dodger faithful and being in complete control. In addition, Texas will likely have some regulars out.

Of course, the toughest part of nailing a low-scoring call here involves scratching out a decent performance from the other starter, Dunning, as he faces the champs.

Fortunately, Dunning is in a position to succeed, or at least hang in there, which is all that’ll be needed considering his counterpart and the total being up to 8.

Texas’ main haul in the Lance Lynn deal this past offseason, Dunning has been mostly solid in his first year as a Ranger, pitching to the tune of a 4.26 ERA while recording a nice strikeout rate (9.63 K/9).

He looks to be back on an upward trend as well, having allowed two or fewer runs in starts. The quality of the opponents for those turns is what makes that stand out, stifling the team LA beat in the World Series (a good Tampa Bay Rays lineup) after surprisingly emerging strong in an assignment at hitter-friendly Coors Field.

Dunning figured to also maybe get a slightly-reduced Dodgers batting order, being a getaway day Sunday affair following a late-night tilt the day before.

MLB Picks - Dodgers vs. Rangers

Pick: UNDER 8 @ -110

MLB Leans

Mariners-Indians Under 7.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “38-29-3,” +5.16 units

Yesterday’s Result: Angels-Diamondbacks Under 9 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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