MLB Picks and Parlays: Marlins vs. Cardinals Over/Under Picks

Matt Zylbert looks to stay hot with a pick for Wedensday's Marlins vs. Cardinals game
Matt Zylbert
Wed, June 16, 7:29 AM EDT

MLB Picks and Parlays - Marlins vs. Cardinals

Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 1:15 p.m ET

TV: MLB Network

Probable pitchers: Sandy Alcantara (4-5, 3.39 ERA) vs. Johan Oviedo (0-2, 5.72 ERA)

Marlins vs. Cardinals Prediction

Alcantara only made eight late-season relief appearances for the Cardinals in his first taste of the big leagues a handful of years ago but a youngster getting traded after just one campaign can stick forever.

Therein lies the situation entering today’s series finale related to one of the starting pitchers. And it’s one I believe that can help propel Alcantara to a signature gem.

As I’ve written about countless times before, the 25-year-old flourishes as it is when working in the daytime. Alcantara owns a lifetime 2.47 ERA and 1.09 WHIP during the afternoon, a tendency that’s been very consistent since the Marlins inserted him on the starting pitching staff.

Fortunately, he’ll be working under the sun in this assignment and there’ll be extra motivation, too. While Alcantara’s faced the Cardinals before, he’s never toed the rubber at Busch Stadium prior as a visitor.

So there’s plenty of confidence to be had in Alcantara. At the same time, though, the real challenge scratching out an under will be reliant on the other starter, Oviedo.

Since debuting a year ago in the shortened 60-game campaign, the Cuban import has been a mixed bag. He’s looked like a Major League starter here and there, but in other instances, Oviedo‘s also exhibited, uh, significant command issues.

We’ll hope he’s on the upswing regarding control, given he’s only walked three his last two outings. Considering Oviedo yielded a whopping 11 free passes across the two outings before that, it’s progress.

When Oviedo is locating his pitches, he can be effective. After all, opponents are hitting a minimal .236 off the right-hander.

Working from Busch today can be a boost. Though there’s not a huge sample size, the right-hander’s ERA is actually more than two full runs lower at home (4.37) than away from St. Louis (6.53).

Being a day game after a nighttime affair, some regulars will probably be out between the two lineups. So long as Oviedo can hang around opposite an always game Alcantara, runs will stay low.

MLB Picks and Parlays - Marlins vs. Cardinals

Pick: UNDER 8 @ -111

MLB Leans

Orioles-Indians Under 7.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “40-29-4,” +7.16 units

Yesterday’s Result: Tigers-Royals Under 9 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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