MLB Picks and Parlays: Diamondbacks vs. Giants Over/Under Picks

Matt Zylbert hit another winner on Wednesday. He's back with a pick for Thursday's Diamondbacks vs. Giants game
Matt Zylbert
Thu, June 17, 8:49 AM EDT

MLB Picks and Parlays - Diamondbacks vs. Giants

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 3:45 p.m. ET

TV: MLB Network (joined in progress)

Probable pitchers: Zac Gallen (1-1, 3.04 ERA) vs. Kevin Gausman (7-1, 1.43 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs. Giants

Shocking would be an understatement to describe the linesmakers opening up this series finale between National League West rivals with a peculiarly-high total of 8. Just as such, it could be said the same also applies even with the current 7.5 tag.

By now, Gausman should be getting regularly treated like he’s Jacob deGrom, or at least close to that untouchable status. The nine-year veteran, after all, continues to dominantly chug along en route to enjoying a Cy Young-caliber run, one that could legitimately lead him to pitching’s biggest honor if deGrom is out.

As I just wrote about less than two weeks ago in a victorious under with the right-hander, Gausman is simply returning to where he left off in the shortened 60-game campaign, when he compiled career-best marks in WHIP (1.11), batting average against (.221) and strikeout rate (11.92 K/9). He’s currently on pace to shatter two of those marks given his remarkable 0.78 WHIP and .159 BAA, both of which rank him amongst the top four.

If not for deGrom, Gausman’s 1.43 ERA would lead all Major League starters. Regardless, this is a man that clearly can be trusted to continue providing excellent work. In all but one of his 13 assignments, Gausman allowed no more than two runs.

Now you’re giving him — at his pitcher-friendly home park — the free-falling Diamondbacks, who come in having lost 13 in a row and 30 of their last 33. Yikes.

As it is, Gausman already holds good career numbers against the D-backs. In six career meetings, he etched a 2.43 ERA to go alongside 41 K’s across 29.2 frames.

Just as curious in the linesmakers’ decision to roll with 7.5 is the starting pitcher opposing Gausman. That would be Gallen, the still-underrated Arizona righty.

Of course, part of the thinking on the books is that Gallen will be affected by a decently-long layoff, having not pitched in more than a month. However, he’s the type of breed that can succeed under these circumstances based on his willingness to avoid making a rehab start.

“I think that was kind of the general consensus: If you feel fine, you feel comfortable mentally, to do it up there, let’s just do it,” Gallen recently said. “For me, why waste bullets going through the gamut of whatever, of making a rehab start there. Let’s just make it here and see what we can do.”

The former third-round draft pick has had no issues returning from absence before. Remember, he began the season on the injured list but that didn’t stop Gallen from limiting the first-place Oakland Athletics to one run while striking out eight in his very first assignment of the campaign.

Like the counterpart, Gallen has had success with this adversary, albeit not in a big sample size. Even so, it’s worth noting that he posted a 3.00 ERA in his three career matchups opposite San Francisco — all last year. Two went for quality starts.

Though he’s expected to be on a pitch count, Gallen can potentially still carry this one halfway through for the Snakes. Considering they’re likely to lose, that means we’d only need the bullpen to take one trip around the Giants batting order.

MLB Picks and Parlays - Diamondbacks vs. Giants

Pick: UNDER 7.5 @ -115

MLB Leans

Orioles-Indians Over 9.5

White Sox-Astros Under 9

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “41-29-4,” +8.16 units

Yesterday’s Result: Marlins-Cardinals Under 8 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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