MLB Picks & Parlays - Cubs vs. Mets
Thursday, June 17, 2021 – 7:10 pm EST
Cubs vs. Mets Probable Pitchers
- Cubs: Kyle Hendricks (8-4, 4.46 ERA)
- Mets: Marcus Stroman (6-4, 2.33 ERA)
Every year, Kyle Hendricks is a hard read. But I think this year, I’ve figured him out. The right-handed starter for the Cubs has pitched six innings or more in his last three starts all while allowing five home runs and eight earned runs in those three games.
Hendricks has now allowed multiple runs in five straight starts and three runs in four of his last five starts. However, he continues to help his team win as the Cubs won six straight games that Hendricks started.
He’s got an XFIP of nearly 5, he’s striking out just 15.5 percent of batters and is getting only 41.3 percent of ground balls. There’s a reason why he’s allowing runs. He’s got no overpowering stuff and is allowing 42.3 percent hard contact in the last 30 days.
Against lefties, he’s been hit hard. Hendricks has allowed a .334 wOBA and a .304 ISO in his last 61 at-bats. Righties are also hitting for power with a .194 ISO and he’s only striking out 8.8 percent of righties in the last 68 plate appearances.
This Mets lineup has been heating up and while Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo aren’t back just yet, guys like Billy McKinney, Kevin Pillar and Jonathan Villar have stepped up and contributed in a big day.
Collectively, the Mets have an ISO of .244 and a wOBA of .355 against righties in the last 30 days. They’ve limited ground balls to 39 percent and while they don’t walk, they’re only striking out 21 percent of the time, which really isn’t that bad.
There’s reason to believe the Mets can score runs, at home, as they look for the four-game sweep over the Cubs.
On the flip side, Marcus Stroman will get the call. He’s been terrific this season and has also been going about six innings per start this season. He’s striking out 26 percent of batters and walking just 6.5 percent of batters in the last 30 days.
What’s been impressive the most is not his strikeouts, but it’s that he’s getting nearly 58 percent of ground balls in his last 30 days. The Cubs are hitting 46.1 percent of grounders with their projected lineup. Stroman should be able to induce plenty ground balls and strike out this Cubs lineup pretty consistently.
The Cubs have had some solid contributors. Kris Bryant was out of the lineup yesterday but is expected to play. Jayson Heyward got the day off yesterday and should also be in the lineup moving forward. But the lineup is striking out 23.8 percent of the time against righties and struck out eight of nine at-bats against Jacobn deGrom last night.
Anyway, the Mets lineup has looked extremely hot recently and at minimum, the Mets should have three runs by the 6th inning against Hendricks. That would mean, to hit their team total, they’ll need one more run in the final portion of the game, in what would be a close game with the fans loud at Citi Field.
The Mets should be able to power their way to four or more runs against Hendricks. Either way, you want a chance to win every bet you place. The Mets should put up multiple runs against Hendricks giving us a serious chance at winning this wager.
I’m realistically expecting at least four runs from the Mets in the first six innings against Hendricks.
MLB Picks - Cubs vs. Mets
The Pick: Mets Over 3.5 Runs @ -110
Cubs vs. Mets Moneyline Odds
- Chicago Cubs to win @ +110
- New York Mets to win @ -120
Cubs vs. Mets Run Line Odds
- Chicago Cubs +1.5 @ -189
- New York Mets -1.5 @ +175
Cubs vs. Mets Over/Under Odds
- Over 7.5 @ +108
- Under 7.5 @ -110