MLB Picks and Parlays: Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Over/Under

Matt Zylbert brings us his over/under pick for Friday's Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks game
Matt Zylbert
Fri, June 18, 8:36 AM EDT

MLB Picks and Parlays: Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction & Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over/Under: 9.5

First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Trevor Bauer (6-5, 2.64 ERA) vs. Caleb Smith (2-2, 3.61 ERA)

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks

Oh boy, a total of 9.5 for this series opener? Even with the reigning Cy Young involved? And opposite a fine pitcher, too.

To put into perspective how odd this over/under is, the linesmakers just labeled a Caleb Smith home start a half-run lower his last time out, which came against Alex Cobb, someone far, far inferior to Bauer.

Before you cite the differences in lineups (the Angels were without Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani), also remember that the defending world champions are not at full strength right now, and even when they are, they’re considerably less dangerous against left-handed pitching. I’ve covered this lengthy tendency before and it’s continued true in 2021, as LA sports a much lower team OPS versus southpaws (.702) compared to right-handers (.771).

I mean, we already know we’ll probably get a gem from Bauer, who made his Major League debut nine years ago with the D-backs, so there should be a little extra for the 30-year-old entering this start. He’s only pitched in Arizona twice previously as a visitor, crafting nice results in both outings. We’ll expect similar here.

Bauer is coming off his first start since his team debut in which he allowed more than three runs. Of the six, though, two were unearned and Bauer still took the game into the seventh and punched out eight, indicating he really wasn’t even bad at all.

In any event, Bauer will be seeking to atone for the uncharacteristic assignment and what better opportunity to do that than a team that’s lost 14 games in a row?

The Diamondbacks are at a franchise low right now, having horrifyingly dropped 31 of their last 34. Things don’t just suddenly snap the other way when facing a legit elite starting pitcher the caliber of Bauer.

Thus, all we really need is Smith to avoid getting bombed. Given the aforementioned Dodger righty-lefty splits and Smith’s solid overall resurgence upon his return to the rotation, I think that’s a bet worth making. Remember, with a total of 9.5, he’ll have plenty of room for error.

MLB Picks and Parlays - Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks

Pick: UNDER 9.5 (-115)

MLB Leans

Mets-Nationals Under 9

Phillies-Giants Under 8.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “41-30-4,” +7.01 units

Yesterday’s Result: Diamondbacks-Giants Under 7.5 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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