MLB Picks & Parlays - Twins vs. Rangers
Friday, June 18, 2021 – 8:05 pm EST
Globe Life Field
Twins vs. Rangers Probable Pitchers
- Twins: Jose Berrios (7-2, 3.49 ERA)
- Rangers: Mike Foltynewicz (1-7, 5.48 ERA)
Mike Foltynewicz will take the mound for the Rangers and it’s been quite the season for him. He’s now 1-7 on the year with a 5.48 ERA. In his last two starts, he’s allowed 13 runs in 6.1 innings including 16 hits, four home runs and just three strikeouts.
Yes, he’s allowed four home runs and three strikeouts in his last 6.1 innings. In the last 30 days, he’s got an XFIP of 6.37 while striking out just 7.3 percent of batters. On top of that, the right-hander is getting only 36.8 percent of ground balls and is allowing over 47 percent of hard contact.
He’s mostly struggled with lefties but is allowing power from both sides of the plate. The projected lineup for the Twins should include six left-handed bats along with three right-handed power bats like Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson and Miguel Sano, who have all hit solid power within the last 30 days against righties.
In his last 43 plate appearances against lefties, Foltynewicz is allowing a .478 wOBA and an ISO of .359. Batters have an exit velocity of 90.3 mph and rarely strike out.
Many batters in the lineup haven’t faced Foltynewicz in their careers but the ones who have, found success.
Nelson Cruz is batting 1.000 in three plate appearances with a home run. Miguel Sano had a clutch two-RBI single against Foltynewicz in his career and Polanco had a walk and a single.
I know, there’s not much there. Foltynewicz was in the NL for most of his career but knowing Cruz has a home run against Foltynewicz should excite Twins backers tonight.
On the other hand, Jose Berrios will take the hill for the Twins. The Twins have won seven of his last eight starts this season and have scored at least five runs in six of those seven wins with Berrios on the mound. One of those games was even a seven-inning double-header game where they still scored six runs.
Berrios still allowed six earned runs in his last two starts due to three home runs allowed but his XFIP in the last 30 days is 3.57 while striking out 25 percent of batters and walking under 5 percent of batters.
The Rangers lineup really hasn’t been consistent at all this season outside of Adolis Garcia. The lineup is striking out nearly 25 percent of the time and haven’t had much power with Gallo struggling against righties.
You can back the Twins in so many different ways but because they’re the road team, I'll take the full nine innings and ride with the Twins team total of 4.5 and select the over.
The Twins, as stated earlier, should have six lefties in the lineup and then three righties who have smashed righties all season long for power. I love this Twins lineup and expect them to smash Foltynewicz early and often just like the last couple of games he’s started.
MLB Picks - Twins vs. Rangers
The Pick: Twins Over 4.5 Runs @ -121
Twins vs. Rangers Moneyline Odds
- Minnesota Twins to win @ -156
- Texas Rangers to win @ +147
Twins vs. Rangers Run Line Odds
- Minnesota Twins -1.5 @ +108
- Texas Rangers -1.5 @ -115
Twins vs. Rangers Over/Under Odds
- Over 8.5 @ -115
- Under 8.5 @ +105