Colorado Rockies vs. Seattle Mariners Odds, Prediction & Picks
- Rockies: Kyle Freeland (0-2, 9.58 ERA)
- Mariners: Chris Flexen (6-3, 4.12 ERA)
It’s been a rough go-around for Kyle Freeland of the Colorado Rockies. Freeland, who was once a Cy Young candidate just a few years ago, has been lit up since returning to the diamond.
Freeland has allowed 19 runs, nine home runs and 27 hits in just 12.2 innings in June. But don’t worry, it gets worse.
Freeland has only struck out six batters in those 12.2 innings, meaning he’s allowed three more home runs than strikeouts in his last three starts. It’s been bad for Freeland and even if they get better, I’m not so sure it’ll be enough for Freeland to produce any kind of win for the Rockies, who have been awful on the road to begin with.
In the last 30 days, Freeland has an XFIP of 7.09 and is striking out 10.6 percent of batters. Meanwhile, he’s also walking 10.6 percent of batters and has given up a batting average of balls in play of .357 while allowing 35.4 percent hard contact.
Right now it doesn’t matter if you’re right-handed or left-handed, when batting against Freeland, you’re getting on base. Lefties have a wOBA of .582 in their last 23 plate appearances against Freeland while righties have a .451 wOBA against Freeland in 62 plate appearances.
The Mariners offense actually has the worst average in baseball against lefties this season. But recently, they’ve picked it up and have the most doubles in baseball against lefties in the last 30 days.
The Mariners lineup includes power with Mitch Haniger, J.P. Crawford, and Luis Torrens all hit at least two homers off lefties in the last 30 days. Kyle Seager and Ty France have added home runs of their own as well against lefties.
Torrens has played in just four games in the last 30 days against lefties and has two home runs and four hits. Meanwhile, Jake Bauers was added from the Indians not too long ago and is a big right-handed bat against lefties. He’s hitting .385 in 13 plate appearances against lefties. Crawford, France, and Shed Long Jr. are all hitting over .300 as well.
Haniger and Seager aren’t really hitting for a high average but have plenty of power potential, especially against Freeland.
The lineup for the Mariners is way better than you’d think against lefties and they’ve shown it recently.
On the other hand, Chris Flexen is coming off a four-hit, eight strikeout performance against the Twins where he induced 14 ground balls and just four fly balls in that game. There’s no guarantee he’ll do that again but that start could be a confidence booster.
Flexen wasn’t striking out many batters but will have plenty of opportunity to get strikeouts against this Rockies team that strikes out 24.1 percent of the time against righties in the last 30 days.
Only Ryan McMahon has shown any consistency at the plate against righties recently. The Rockies offense has been dreadful but Flexen is allowing 55.2 percent hard contact in the last 30 days. The Rockies might be able to produce but I wouldn’t count on it or bet against them to score either.
So therefore, we’ll take the Mariners on the team total of 3.5 via MGM. The juice is high but that’s fine. The juice doesn’t matter when you win and the Mariners should be able to tack on four runs against Freeland who has allowed at least five runs himself in his last three starts.