Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions & Over/Under Picks

Tuesday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Peralta projecting toward All-Star push
Matt Zylbert
Tue, June 22, 1:26 PM EDT

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Freddy Peralta (6-2, 2.28 ERA) vs. Zac Gallen (1-2, 3.99 ERA)

View odds for the game here.

If not for the greatness of Jacob deGrom, Peralta would in the midst of a legitimate candidacy for this year’s Cy Young Award.

Instead, at least for the moment, Peralta is making a push toward his first career All-Star berth, something that most didn’t see coming after the fourth-year right-hander failed to land any footing prior as a starter despite enormous potential he exhibited.

Peralta is certainly putting it all together now. He’s registered top-10 marks in the Majors in ERA (2.28), WHIP (0.87), K/9 (12.5) and batting average against (.140).

He’s been so stingy that his microscopic .140 BAA is second amongst all starters behind only deGrom (.113). Looking at his overall body of work, Peralta has shown no signs of letting up, having yielded no more than two runs in each of his last seven starts. The consistency has been there, even remarkably recording at least six strikeouts in all 14 of his assignments.

Peralta will be eager to take on the responsibility of guiding Milwaukee back into the win column following a defeat that snapped a 17-game losing streak for the opponent. And even despite that victory, the D-backs have lost 40 of their last 46.

Point being, this is still a club very much in disarray and one that Peralta can continue along with his expected output.

At the same time, Arizona’s first triumph since June 1 (!) can only serve to lessen tension and pressure. Such an atmosphere would be invited for Gallen.

The 25-year-old just returned from a stint on the injured list last Thursday and didn’t fare too well, not even escaping the third inning at San Francisco. In his defense, though, Gallen didn’t make any rehab starts and was on a pitch count, not to mention the fact he was trying to lead his club to stave off historic baseball futility.

That would not be the case, as the Diamondbacks set a record that day with their 23rd straight road loss. At least here, Gallen can be more at ease, while also having the ability for a real start as a result of getting an increased pitch count.

Remember also that this is a starter that recently set his own personal record last year — a great one, too — when he extended his incredible streak of consecutive starts yielding three runs or fewer to begin a MLB career to 23 outings.

This under probably only comes apart if one of the two starters falters. Given each’s consistency, let’s ride their brand.

Pick: UNDER 8 (-120)

MLB Picks & Leans June 22

Royals-Yankees Under 8

Red Sox-Rays Over 7.5

Giants-Angels Under 9

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “42-32-5,” +5.76 units

Yesterday’s Result: Athletics-Rangers Under 8.5 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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