Toronto Blue Jays vs. Miami Marlins Prediction & Over/Under Pick

Wednesday’s MLB Over/Under Bets: Pair of hard-throwing lefties meet in Miami
Matt Zylbert
Wed, June 23, 1:34 PM EDT

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Miami Marlins Prediction

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Robbie Ray (4-3, 3.50 ERA) vs. Trevor Rogers (7-3, 1.87 ERA)

View odds for the game here.

Potential for a pitcher’s duel always exists when two good starters engage into battle at pitcher-friendly Marlins... err, loanDepot park. This matchup definitely fits that bill.

Following a rookie campaign that featured exciting flashes, Rogers has broken out in a big way. If Jacob deGrom didn’t pitch in the National League, he would absolutely be in the running for this year’s Cy Young.

Rogers not only owns baseball’s fourth-lowest ERA (1.87) among all starters, he’s producing excellent numbers across the board. His strikeout rate (10.5 K/9) places him in the top 10 in the league, and he’s also one of only 15 starting pitchers to be holding opponents below the Mendoza Line with his .199 batting average against.

What’s been most mesmerizing about the 23-year-old southpaw, though, is his striking consistency, only allowing more than two runs in a start once all season (!) out of his 14 assignments — and in that one outing, he yielded exactly three runs.

Though the Blue Jays lineup just got its major offseason acquisition (George Springer) back from injury, he still needs time to get comfortable again, as evident in his 0-for-4 showing in last night’s outing. Besides, Springer has hit at a considerably lower clip against left-handers compared to righties the last couple of years. Rogers has been a machine and he’s not about to slow down.

Then there’s Ray, who has arguably looked just as impressive as his counterpart this evening. At the very least, he’s truly looking as sharp as he ever has.

Ray has managed to maintain his usual hearty strikeout rate (11.69 K/9) while throwing the hardest of his career, maestroing an average fastball velocity of 95.1 mph. This while also issuing by far the fewest free passes (2.41 BB/9) he’s allowed, and by a decisively wide margin.

The Marlins sports the NL’s second-lowest team OPS (.664) opposite left-handed pitching. Additionally, they’re striking out nearly once every three at-bats with a southpaw on the hill, therefore tilting this meeting in favor of the wily veteran Ray.

Two guys who can dominate and take control of a game appear to be in stride right now. We’ll try to bank on exactly that.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Miami Marlins Prediction: UNDER 7.5 (-120)

MLB Predictions & Leans - June 23

Nationals-Phillies Under 9

Braves-Mets Over 9

Dodgers-Padres Under 7.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “43-32-5,” +6.76 units

Yesterday’s Result: Brewers-Diamondbacks Under 8 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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