Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins Prediction
- Nationals: Joe Ross (3-7, 4.54 ERA)
- Marlins: Cody Poteet (2-2, 3.90 ERA)
The Marlins are looking to fight their way back into the NL East division. A series win against the Nationals would help their case.
Joe Ross is slated to take the hill for the Nationals after allowing five runs on six hits in five innings against the Mets in a double-header, seven inning game. In that game, he conceded two home runs but didn’t walk a single batter.
He actually hasn’t walked a batter in 13 innings and has struck out 14 batters. He’s trending in the right direction but there’s those games where Ross just gets absolutely rocked.
He’s allowed four or more runs in a game five times and has given up multiple runs in seven of nine games he’s started. On top of that, the Nationals have only won two of the nine starts that Ross has pitched in.
On the season, Ross has struck out 22.5 percent of batters and walked 8.3 percent. He also has an XFIP of 4.51 and a SIERA of 4.32. None of these stats are above average. They’re closer to below average.
Meanwhile, the Marlins lineup is starting to take shape. The projected lineup includes Jazz Chisholm, Starling Marte, Jesus Aguilar, and Adam Duvall who have all hit for solid power against righties this season.
Ross is known for giving up the long ball throughout his career and the Marlins are very capable of doing serious damage at the top of the order when it comes to extra base hits.
On the other hand, Cody Poteet is scheduled to take the mound for the Marlins. Poteet really hasn’t been that bad this season. At 2-2 with a 3.90 ERA, the Marlins could be doing much worse.
Poteet has allowed five earned runs in his last 6.1 innings and while he hasn’t gone deep in his last couple of starts, he’s capable and went seven innings against the Mets on May 23, allowing no runs and three hits through seven innings.
Poteet has struggled in his last three starts, where he has allowed 10 runs in 10.2 innings. However, the Marlins are yanking Poteet off the mound before things get ugly.
The right-hander has been far worse against righties this season and looking at the Nationals lineup, it’s hard to find many solid righties in this lineup outside Trea Turner. The Nationals lineup doesn’t profile that well against righties this year.
I have to mention Kyle Schwarber, who has been red hot for the Nationals. But the analytics share that Poteet has been excellent against lefties this year. Therefore, I won’t expect Schwarber to go yard again tonight.
Even if Poteet has a poor night, the Nationals might be able to score two or three runs out of the game in the first three innings.
But all in all, it’s the Marlins offense that profiles well against the opposition. Ross has been struggling all season long and the Marlins top of the order will produce, including Duvall, who already has two doubles off Ross in his career.
I’ll ride the Marlins to score over 3.5 runs in the full game at -130. If the Nationals score three runs, the Marlins would be guaranteed the ninth inning if needed.