Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Picks

MLB expert Jason Radowitz previews the Braves vs Reds game on Friday's slate
Jason Radowitz
Fri, June 25, 11:20 AM EDT

Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Picks

Date: Friday June 25

Time: 7.10pm ET

Where: Great American Ball Park

Probable Pitchers: 

  • Braves: Drew Smyly (4-3, 5.11 ERA)
  • Reds: Vladimir Gutierrez (3-1, 3.86 ERA)

View odds for the game here. 

Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction

The Atlanta Braves will start a weekend series on the road against the Cincinnati Reds, who are one game above .500. Meanwhile, the Braves are four games below .500 and are clawing back into contention in the NL East.

The Braves will send out Drew Smyly who has allowed just right runs in 19.1 innings pitched in June. In those 19.1 innings, Smyly has allowed two home runs and nine walks while inducing less ground balls than fly balls.

Smyly has had his ups and downs. In his last start, he allowed one hit in 5.2 innings along with no runs to the Cardinals. That was an “up” start for Smyly. Earlier this year, he had games where he allowed seven runs to the Red Sox, six runs to the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks and five runs to the Phillies in April.

He’s been a mixed bag but one thing is for sure, he’s going to have a tough matchup against the Reds lineup.

The Reds have dominated lefties as of late, including Jonthan India, who is currently leading off for the Reds right now. While Jesse Winker has cooled off against lefties, the Reds will have righties that have plenty of power including Nick Castellanos, Tyler Stephenson, Eugenio Suarez, Aristides Aquino and even Kyle Farmer has shown off some extra base hitting ability against lefties.

Meanwhile, Smyly hasn’t been the best against lefties and would have to face Winker and Joey Votto, who both have plenty of pop.

On the season, Smyly is allowing over 2.3 home runs per nine innings and has given up 15 long balls on the year. While he’s allowing home runs to lefties, he’s not necessarily walking them. However, he has walked 20 batters in 174 plate appearances from the right side, and again, the Reds lineup should have six righties in the lineup and only two lefties (and then the pitcher.)

On the other hand, Vladimir Gutierrez will take the hill for the Reds. He hasn’t been very good either, allowing 11 earned runs in 23 innings with 21 hits and 12 walks. In his starts in June, the Reds have scored 26 runs in four games.

Gutierrez has basically kept the Reds in every game that he’s pitched this season and that should be the case again. The Braves lineup hasn’t hit all that well as of late and while the top of the order always profiles well, Acuna has been striking out way too often against righties.

Actually, the entire projected lineup has. They’ve struck out 25.2 percent of the time against righties in the last 30 days and the bottom of the order has struggled finding much success to begin with.

The top of the order should get on base but the question is whether or not the bottom of the order can drive in runs or get on base for the top of the lineup.

It’s always good to have a running mate and partner when taking team totals. The Reds are the home team and if they’re losing 5-4 in the bottom of the 9th, they’ll get a chance to bat in the 9th to win their team total ticket.

The Braves profile well enough to stick around in this game but I’m not going to trust them as much as the Reds. The Reds lineup should power their way through Smyly and score at least five runs in this game.

For my Braves vs Reds prediction, I’ll ride the Reds to score five runs against Smyly and the Braves bullpen. We’re going to see plenty of long balls in this one.

Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction: Reds Over 4.5 TT (-145) at MGM

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