Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Prediction & Over/Under Picks

Friday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Nola, Walker draw curiously high doubleheader total
Matt Zylbert
Fri, June 25, 1:48 PM EDT

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Prediction & Over/Under Picks

Matt Zylbert's been on a heater, with an overall run of 28-11-2 (71.8%) in the last 6 weeks...read on for today's picks. 

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Prediction

Over/Under: 6

First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Aaron Nola (5-4, 4.22 ERA) vs. Taijuan Walker (6-3, 2.42 ERA)

View odds for the game here.

Really? Even after German Marquez and Marcus Stroman garnered a total of 5 from this same venue just a few weeks ago, this arguably stronger pitching matchup gets one that’s a full run higher?

Now granted, the Mets are much healthier at the plate now than they were back then but that can also be somewhat nullified, being a doubleheader contest that will surely see them sitting a few regulars.

Expect this over/under to be on the move downward. In the meantime, make sure you grab this at 6, as these two starting pitchers can easily produce something within that threshold in a shortened affair.

Walker, for one, has looked nothing short of an All-Star. In the process, he’s crafting his best season to date, ranking in the top 10 among all National League starters with a 2.42 ERA. Additionally, his WHIP (1.05), strikeout rate (9.32 K/9) and batting average against .205) have never been better. By this point after his successful return from Tommy John last year, Walker is in the best form of his life.

We’ll look for him to continue the quality work. And in a seven-inning game, even just a solid five-inning gem would do, as Walker has a great bullpen waiting behind.

Nola, too, is a fine bet to contribute something useful — while also containing a ceiling to dominate for most of the bout.

Though the seventh-year right-hander is coming off a rare outing in which he was hit hard, that can actually be used to the advantage of an under bettor based on past tendencies. He just rebounds quickly.

Nola has now allowed more than five runs in a start 11 times in his career. In all but three of the previous 10 ensuing assignments, Nola held the opposition to three earned runs or fewer. Plus, tapping into Nola’s history against the Mets helps suggest a solid showing from the former first-round draft pick, being 8-3 with a 3.36 ERA and, most impressively, a notably high strikeout rate of 10.87 K/9.

Two very good starters. Probably somewhat downgraded batting order. The first half of this twin bill can start things by sustaining low activity on the scoreboard.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Prediction: UNDER 6 (-120)

MLB Picks & Leans - June 25

Nationals-Marlins Under 7.5

Pirates-Cardinals Under 9

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: “45-32-5,” +8.76 units

Yesterday’s Result: Athletics-Rangers Under 8 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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