Jun 26, 9:10am | 4 min read

Mariners vs. White Sox Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

MLB

Matt Zylbert

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Matt Zylbert has been on an insane run. He looks to keep it going with Saturday's Mariners vs. White Sox pick

ANALYSIS

Mariners vs. White Sox Prediction

Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox

Over/Under: 8.5

First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Logan Gilbert (2-2, 4.50 ERA) vs. Lance Lynn (7-3, 2.14 ERA)

Mariners vs. White Sox

Just like in yesterday’s over/under, leaning on an established staring pitcher to bounce back from uncharacteristic work can be vital deciding such bets. Lynn generates intrigue upon his own scenario.

One of the frontrunners to be this year’s American League All-Star starter, Lynn has been just outstanding, pitching to the tune of a 2.14 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Both those marks place the 250-pound right-hander top five in the AL among starters.

Additionally, Lynn is one of only four pitchers in the league that are currently holding opposing hitters below the Mendoza Line, honing a stingy .195 batting average against. According to FanGraphs, Lynn is inducing the lowest rate of line drives on batted balls in play for his career as a starter, drawing only 26 percent of such contact off the lumber.

Lynn is also maintaining a healthy amount of strikeouts, clocking in with 10.23 K/9. There’s a lot to like about what the 11-year veteran has done and you know he wants to atone for his last outing when Lynn was tagged for a season-high six runs. That, however, came against one of baseball’s most potent offenses (Astros), and here, not only does he return home where he prefers (1.61 ERA, 0.86 WHIP at Guaranteed Rate Field this season), he’ll face a considerably lighter-hitting lineup.

Lynn can be trusted to do his part in this bet carrying a majority of the load. But what about his 24-year-old counterpart?

If you haven’t watched Gilbert pitch yet, you’re missing out. Don’t be fooled by his pedestrian 2-2 record and 4.50 ERA; the former first-round draft pick is impressing.

Gilbert compiled excellent strikeout rates previously and he’s managing to sustain that in his first taste of the bigs, as evidenced by the 9.53 K/9 he’s producing.

The 6-foot-6 hurler has also registered a respectable 3.91 FIP, indicating he has indeed pitched superior than what his overall line may suggest. Gilbert appears to be at his most comfortable right now, too, having pitched the Mariners into the sixth inning or deeper in each of his last four assignments — he hadn’t even went past four frames in his first three outings.

Being a day game after a nighttime affair, there’s a pretty good chance we’ll see some notable regulars absent from the two starting lineups. The total of 8.5 appears like it provides enough leeway to capitalize on a lower-scoring outcome.