Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

Matt Zylbert is 29-11-2 over the last six weeks. Check out his play from Diamondbacks vs. Padres on Sunday
Matt Zylbert
Sun, June 27, 7:57 AM EDT

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Zac Gallen (1-3, 3.67 ERA) vs. Yu Darvish (7-2, 2.50 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs. Padres

In his third start following a six-week stint on the injured list, Gallen will once again be taking on a National League Cy Young candidate, this time in the form of Darvish.

Previously, Gallen faced Kevin Gausman and Freddy Peralta, and although the third-year hurler faltered his first time out back from injury, he looked impressive enough during his most recent turn that leads me to believe he’s back in rhythm.

Pitting Gallen opposite an elite starter just oozes potential for an under in pretty much every scenario — and he’s already been consistently useful toward such bets, producing a 21-10-2 unders record. Remember, this is the starting pitcher that set the Major League record just last season for most consecutive starts giving up three runs or fewer to begin a career.

First off, we can count on Darvish to do his usual thing. The 34-year-old has once again been one of the pitchers in baseball, carrying a 7-2 record and 2.50 ERA into his next assignment. As usual, the strikeouts have accumulated quickly, honing a strikeout rate (10.8 K/9) that places Darvish in the top 15 among all starting pitchers. So, too, does his nifty 4.9 K/BB ratio (108 strikeouts to 22 walks).

Perhaps most glaring of all, Darvish is registering a career-low batting average against (.189) while being one of 10 pitchers in the league that’s holding opposing batters below the Mendoza Line.

With Darvish presumably leading the way, that figures to lend extra room for error to the Diamondback right-hander. And given how he looked on Tuesday, paired with his encouraging track record against the Padres, he’s a nice bet to do his part well.

Gallen’s only faced Sam Diego twice in his still-young career but those results merit action for the third meeting. He limited the Friars to just one run combined across those two matchups, spanning 11 innings. He also compiled a razor thin 0.82 WHIP.

All Gallen has to do here is hang while Darvish works his trademark wizardry.

MLB Picks - Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction

Pick: UNDER 7.5 @ -120

MLB Leans

Phillies-Mets Under 7.5

Nationals-Marlins Under 6.5

Cubs-Dodgers Under 8

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “46-32-5,” +9.76 units

Yesterday’s Result: Mariners-White Sox Under 8.5 (No Action)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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