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Tuesday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Capitalizing on the disrespect of Heaney

Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees Prediction & Over/Under Picks

Over/Under: 10

First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Andrew Heaney (4-5, 4.72 ERA) vs. Jameson Taillon (2-4, 5.18 ERA)

View odds for the game here.

Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees Prediction

Wow. Just wow. While games at Yankee Stadium can draw totals into double digits, those such decisions are usually reserved for the worst pitching matchups.

So then how can the linesmakers make such a call on this meeting between two actually solid starters? For one, it’s mostly blatant disrespect shown to Heaney. To contrast this over/under with other contests at Yankee Stadium involving Taillon, he just faced Brad Keller less than a week ago with a total of 9. Earlier this year, when his opponent was Spencer Turnbull, that over/under opened at 8.5.

But 10 for Heaney? Come on. He’s probably better than both (obviously above Keller), and while the Angels sport the superior offense compared to the two at hand, the total still shouldn’t be this high even if Mike Trout (calf) and Justin Upton (back) were not out due to injury.

Whatever, we’ll just seek to capitalize on yet another botch by the books. Heaney has long been one of my favorite pitchers in the game — since the night of his Majors debut, in fact — and is definitely far better than his current 4.72 ERA. If you take out his first start of the campaign when he was shelled for a season-high seven runs, Heaney owns a sub-4.00 ERA.

Aside from that, the eighth-year southpaw is pitching to a much more encouraging 3.67 FIP and 3.57 xFIP, indicating Heaney has indeed been better than overall stats. Dealing with a .326 batting average on balls put in play against him has been unfair, too, and will indubitably regress.

The strikeouts are certainly still there, which has been a trademark in his game when healthy. Heaney’s 11.14 K/9 match his career-best mark across a full season from a few years ago and I know that while healthy, Heaney deals like an ace.

Taillon is another top favorite pitcher of mine, and like his counterpart tonight, this has been the case since he first started.

Also similar to the opposing starter, Taillon has looked better than what his stat line may suggest. His 4.34 FIP absolutely illustrates such, as does what is easily the best strikeout rate he’s registered during his time in the Major Leagues (9.65 K/9).

We must recognize this rhythm Taillon is in as well. The former Pittsburgh Pirate has allowed three runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, and most notable, he’s coming off his first quality start and win in more than a month. Taillon’s better than what he’s shown and there should be no debate that he sustains an upward trend.

Make sure to grab this under as soon as possible given the potential it only goes down. Both hurlers can prove their worth.

Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees Prediction: UNDER 10 (-110)

Leans - June 29

Marlins-Phillies Under 9

Twins-White Sox Under 8.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “47-33-5,” +9.56 units

Yesterday’s Result: Giants-Dodgers Under 8.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


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