Jun 30, 9:02am | 4 min read

Tigers vs. Indians Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

MLB

Matt Zylbert

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Matt Zylbert is back with his pick for Tigers vs. Indians on Wednesday

ANALYSIS

Tigers vs. Indians Prediction - MLB Picks

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (Game 1)

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Jose Urena (2-8, 6.00 ERA) vs. Cal Quantrill (0-2, 3.64 ERA)

Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians

Ah, not many doubleheader games under seven-inning rules draw a total of 8. Given the work shown by Urena since coming off the injured list, it’s an understandable call.

At the same time, Urena’s recent woes can be utilized to the advantage of an over/under bettor. Specifically speaking, the seven-year veteran can’t possibly continue being this bad. This is the first time he’s allowed more than five runs in three straight starts and with his job in the rotation on the line, I see a spirited effort.

That would point to at least a satisfactory assignment from the former Miami Marlin, which can be very useful in a shortened contest. Urena possesses solid numbers against the Indians, too, even churning out his only scoreless outing of the season against them approximately a month ago.

“I feel good,” Urena said after his most recent turn. He added: “I know 100 percent I can get right back on track.”

Urena’s been around awhile and crafted plenty of lengthy stretches filled with effective pitching during his time in the big leagues. I’ll take him at his word here and trust the right-hander to go back in the other direction toward previous form when he held a 3.60 ERA through eight outings.

Perhaps above all, this will be an afternoon start, something always worth pointing out in the case of Urena. One glaring tendency throughout his career is that he’s fared far better in the daytime (3.65 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) compared to nighttime hours (5.36 ERA, 1.48 WHIP).

As for the other side of this equation, there’s a lot to like about the pitching Cleveland will be trotting out. Despite following up an uncharacteristic off performance, Quantrill is holding well.

Only three times in his 23 appearances (mostly from the bullpen) did Quantrill get touched for multiple runs. If you remove two fluky bad starts, the 26-year-old Canadian native would have a 1.76 ERA.

Applying the mindset that Quantrill will bounce back right away opposite a lighter-hitting batting order, this is a good scenario to deploy the third-year righty in an under. He’ll have some room for error based on the inflated total, and securing just five innings would be terrific, having the likes of James Karinchak and Emmanuel Clase waiting in the wings.

Being how the over/under is already on the way down in some spots, make sure to get this under bet in as soon as possible.