Giants vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: MLB Picks & Odds

Jason Radowitz breaks down Thursday's Giants vs. Diamondbacks game and gives us his pick
Jason Radowitz
Thu, July 1, 6:25 AM EDT

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction - MLB Picks

Date: July 1

Time: 9:40 pm ET

Where: Chase Field

Click here to view the latest odds.

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers

  • Giants: Johnny Cueto (6-3, 3.63 ERA)
  • Diamondbacks: Merrill Kelly (4-7, 4.73 ERA)

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

This is the ultimate mismatch between these two teams. The San Francisco Giants are 50-29 on the year while the Diamondbacks are 22-60 on the season.

However, Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks has put together a couple quality starts in his last two games and helped the Diamondbacks win both of those games by a combined score of 15-1.

It seems when Kelly is on the mound, recently, the Diamondbacks forget that they’re bad.

But things are about to change tonight.

Kelly is striking out just 21.2 percent of batters while walking 6.5 percent of batters. He’s allowing a batting average of balls in play of .305 and leaving just under 67 percent of runners on base, which is below average.

Before his two quality stars in June, Kelly allowed 12 runs in 14 innings against the Giants, Angels and Brewers.

The Giants scored four runs in three innings against Kelly on June 16. He gave up four hits, three walks along with a home run and only induced one ground ball in his outing.

Kelly has struggled against the Giants throughout his career. In 63 at-bats, he’s allowed 19 hits, seven extra base hits and two home runs while striking out just 11 batters. Giants hitters have a .302 average against Kelly in those 63 at-bats and an OPS of .847.

On the season, Kelly has allowed a wOBA of .339 to righties and a .195 ISO to righties. He’s only striking out 18.8 percent of left-handed batters and struggles to induce grounders against lefties.

The Giants lineup will have a mixture of righties and lefties with a combined isolated power of .200 and a weighted on-base average of .343. The Giants offense will strike out often but against Kelly, that should at least be limited a little bit.

Buster Posey will be the main bat in the lineup that could do damage against Kelly as he’s hitting 5-14 with three extra base hits, including a home run.

Kelly’s walks are higher to lefties this season and he’ll face three lefties in the lineup that are walking 10 percent of the time or more. The Giants are patient and will work the counts. On another note, Kelly also allows 46.2 percent hard contact and if he’s going to face the Giants, that could be a problem.

Every batter in the Giants lineup is hitting the ball with 36 percent hard contact or above. If strikeouts are limited, the Giants should be able to put some hard shots in play and end Merrill Kelly’s day early. If not, they’ll have a mismanaged bullpen the rest of the way, on the road, which guarantees nine innings of hitting.

With Johnny Cueto on the mound for the Giants, after a day-off last night, this team should be well prepared and rested. Cueto has allowed 3 ER or less in four of his last five starts and should be able to accomplish that again.

However, he did allow eight hits and four runs in five innings against the Diamondbacks on May 26, which is why I’ll just rely on the San Francisco bats for this play.

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks PredictionSan Francisco Giants Over 4.5 TT @ -115

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