Twins vs. White Sox Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

Matt Zylbert breaks down Thursday's game between the Twins and White Sox
Matt Zylbert
Thu, July 1, 8:48 AM EDT

Twins vs. White Sox Prediction - MLB Over/Under Picks

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox

Over/Under: 8.5

First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Jose Berrios (7-2, 3.41 ERA) vs. Carlos Rodon (6-3, 2.06 ERA)

Twins vs. White Sox

Overreaction, much? Following Monday’s rainout, there’s been 29 runs combined across the first two games of this series and apparently, today’s getaway-day finale is feeling the brunt of that in total.

To put into perspective of how unexpected this over/under is, Rodon faced Robbie Ray in Chicago about a month ago with a total of 8 attached. Clearly, a case could be made that Berrios is the better pitcher.

Let’s try to exploit this error by banking on Berrios to pick up from where he left off his last assignment, when he tied for his second-highest amount of strikeouts (nine) in a start this season while yielding only one run in six-plus really nice innings.

Notably, Berrios registered a quality start in that one, marking his third consecutive turn doing so. This is significant because it’s the first time Berrios has accomplished a trifecta in a row in nearly two full years.

In other words, the Puerto Rican native couldn’t really be more locked in right now, and on top of that, while the White Sox sport a potent lineup that most fear, they’re a franchise Berrios has mastered.

The Twins right-hander has thrown more innings opposite Chicago than anyone else in his career, and he couldn’t ask for better results. In 17 meetings, Berrios is 12-2 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Furthermore, he’s accumulating 9.19 K/9.

Rodon, meanwhile, is having the breakout campaign many (like myself) envisioned from the former first-round draft choice years ago. His strikeout potential was always there but unfortunately, injuries played a large role in holding Rodon back.

This year’s been a different story, as not only will Rodon be making his 14th start already, he also enters as one of the frontrunners of starting the All-Star Game.

How could the southpaw not with those outstanding numbers he carries? Rodon’s 2.06 ERA and .169 batting average against rank him in the top five in all of baseball among starters. Furthermore, his hunger for strikeouts has been on full display, notching the second-highest strikeout rate (12.93 K/9) behind only Jacob deGrom. He’s consistently stingy.

Let’s also emphasize the individual accolades in play here aside from gunning for team success. Rodon is aware he could very well be the American League starting pitcher in the Midsummer Classic and Berrios knows he’s closing in on his second-career All-Star Berry. More fuel.

Twins vs. White Sox Prediction - MLB Picks

Pick: UNDER 8.5 @ -114

MLB Leans

Royals-Red Sox Under 10

Brewers-Pirates Under 8

Mets-Braves Under 7

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “47-35-5,” +7.26 units

Yesterday’s Result: Tigers-Indians Under 8 Game 1 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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