Rangers vs. Mariners Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

Matt Zylbert breaks down Friday's Mariners vs. Rangers game
Matt Zylbert
Fri, July 2, 9:47 AM EDT

Rangers vs. Mariners Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Kyle Gibson (6-0, 2.00 ERA) vs. Logan Gilbert (2-2, 4.25 ERA)

Rangers vs. Mariners

Gibson knows what’s at stake here. Though Texas is on the brink of another lost season, there’s still a huge individual accolade in play for the veteran righty.

Not only is Gibson closing in on his first All-Star Game, he also might attain the honor of starting it. Yes, that Kyle Gibson.

After Carlos Rodon clocked out with a shaky performance in his outing yesterday, Gibson gained a sizable lead for the league’s lowest ERA (2.00). He’s also one of just four pitchers in the American League to be holding opponents at or below the puny Mendoza Line (.200).

Additionally, Gibson is the only pitcher in baseball to remain unbeaten with at least six decisions (6-0). Yet there hasn’t been much noise about the former Minnesota Twin potentially starting the Midsummer Classic for the AL in a couple weeks’ time.

While I may be a bit biased, as Gibson is a longtime Zylbert Guy dating back to his rookie campaign eight years ago, but he’s clearly proven his case to be the ace of the All-Star team pitching staff. I get that people prefer paying attention to the pitchers with sexy strikeout numbers and double-digit K rates, but so what if Gibson’s amount of punch-outs are low.

The fact remains the 33-year-old is generating the right type of contact he wants, and in the process, has severely limited the long ball to opposing rakers. In fact, only six balls total this year have sailed beyond the outfield fences — a stark contrast from when Gibson allowed twice as many homers last year in far fewer innings. Clearly, strides were made.

Given how sharp he looked his last time out rifling seven shutouts innings and notching a season-high 10 punch-outs, I will trust Gibson once more in his quest.

And he’s got a solid counterpart to contend with tonight for this assignment, that being the hotshot youngster Gilbert.

Seattle’s 2018 first-round draft pick has looked pretty impressive thus far. Unfortunately, we had him in an under last Saturday that got suspended (and therefore didn’t count) after the early makings of a pitcher’s duel were there.

Even so, it was still encouraging to watch Gilbert in arguably his most dominant form. And against a good White Sox club.

Gilbert appears to be in a strong rhythm and we’ll entrust him to maintain just that when dealing with an offense that’s scored more runs per game than only two other teams in the AL. Working in his home pitcher-friendly park is a boost, too.

Rangers vs. Mariners Prediction - MLB Picks

Pick: UNDER 8 @ -110

MLB Leans

Mets-Yankees Over 8.5

Marlins-Braves Over 9

Giants-Diamondbacks Under 8.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “47-36-5,” +6.12 units

Yesterday’s Result: Twins-White Sox Under 8.5 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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