Jul 3, 12:02pm | 4 min read

Marlins vs. Braves Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

MLB Baseball

Matt Zylbert

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Marlins vs. Braves predictions and picks for Saturday's game in Atlanta

ANALYSIS

Marlins vs. Braves Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Sandy Alcantara (4-7, 3.12 ERA) vs. Kyle Muller (1-1, 2.70 ERA)

Marlins vs. Braves

The linesmakers apparently don’t think much of Muller very early in his career, otherwise why hang a total of 9 for this?

Well, that’s an opportunity for those who were sensing ‘under’ in the first place. After all, Muller’s been nearly unhittable in his first two starts — literally — as there’s only been one hit off the 23-year-old rookie in nine innings within those outings.

Furthermore, Muller is coming off an excellent showing that saw him clock in and engineer five shutout frames in which he scattered three baserunners and had nine strikeouts. Safe to say he’s settled in.

The intimidating 6-foot-7, 250-pound Texas native also figures to have a favorable matchup in this one, as the Marlins sport the league’s second-lowest team OPS (.666) opposite southpaws. They strike out a good amount with a left-hander on the mound as well, so this specific assignment sets Muller up nicely.

As for his counterpart, Alcantara is always in a comfort zone when he gets to work with the sun out. It’s a strong tendency I’ve covered many times already during Alcantara’s four years with the Fish — that he simply excels more consistently during the daytime (2.49 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) compared to night (4.10 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).

That trend is once again ringing true in 2021 for the former National League All-Star. Alcantara’s 1.73 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in six afternoon starts this season easily best what he’s done later in the day (4.02 ERA, 1.12 WHIP). He’s very dependable.

Alcantara has also interestingly proven to be dependable when taking on this division rival. In fact, he’s unbeaten in five career meetings (1-0) with the Braves, en route to etching a cool 2.90 ERA in those encounters, including fine work this year.