White Sox vs. Tigers Prediction: MLB Picks & Odds

White Sox vs. Tigers predictions, odds and picks ahead of Sunday's game in Detroit
Jason Radowitz
Sun, July 4, 6:43 AM EDT

Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Prediction - MLB Picks

Date: July 4

Time:  1:10pm ET

Where: Comerica Park

Click here to view the latest odds

White Sox vs. Tigers Probable Pitchers

  • White Sox: Lucas Giolito (6-5, 3.84 ERA)
  • Tigers: Matt Manning (1-2, 8.16 ERA)

It has been an interesting three weeks for Matt Manning. As a top prospect who didn’t perform all that well in Triple A, he’s held his own thus far.

In his first two starts, he allowed two earned runs in five innings or more but in his last start, he allowed nine hits, nine runs and two home runs against the Indians.

That’s more like the Manning we saw in Triple A. The guy that throws multiple home runs and struggles to get strikeouts.

Manning only has six strikeouts in 14.1 innings and has allowed four walks and 13 earned runs with 18 hits. He was average in his first two games but downright awful in his last.

The biggest thing for Manning is getting guys out when there are runners on base. In those three games, he’s struggled holding runners on and now has a left on base percentage of 53.2 percent.

That means almost half of runners he’s allowing on base are scoring runs against him. The average for league play is usually around 70 percent. But look, that’s going to happen to rookies. They’re going to pitch a bit scared and make mistakes.

Manning has now allowed teams to hiit .295 with a batting average of balls in play of .288. Currently, his FIP sits at 6.09 with his ERA stuck at 8.16.

The White Sox have crushed right-handed pitching in the last 30 days, even with a lineup that will more than likely be without Yasmani Grandal, who will get some rest and Eloy Jiminez, Nick Madrigal, Jake Lamb, Luis Robert and Adam Engel who are all on the injured list.

It seems like I just named the entire starting lineup for the White Sox and maybe I did, but the backups have done their part so far.

Still, the projected lineup, in the last 30 days for the White Sox, has hit an ISO of .258 and have a wOBA of .394 against righties along with just a 18.8 percent strikeout rate and a 9 percent walk rate.

Outfielder Gavin Sheets has stepped up as of late. He already hit a home run against the Tigers earlier in this series but through 15 plate appearances against righties, he has an ISO of .615, wOBA of .582 and striking out just 6.7 percent of the time.

Right-handed killer, Brian Goodwin had three straight games with an extra base hit and hit a triple on Friday against the Tigers. Against righties, the left-handed outfielder is hitting an ISO of .500 and has a wOBA of .526 while walking 20 percent of the time.

Other guys who have had success against righties include Andrew Vaughn, Jake Burger, and Zach Collins.

The team limits ground balls and has plenty of guys in the lineup who hit for hard contact, which is something that Manning allows plenty of.

Lucas Giolito, on the other hand, will take the hill for the White Sox. He hasn’t been excellent and allowed multiple runs in every game in June. In those five games in June, he allowed eight home runs.

I’m not going to back Giolito, even against the Tigers. So with that, I’ll take the White Sox on the team total. There’s something to be said about winning teams that have to insert back-up players into their lineup.

Those guys produce because they’re still expected to win.

White Sox vs. Tigers PredictionWhite Sox TT Over 4.5 @ +145

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