MLB Picks & Odds: Yankees vs. Mariners Prediction

Jason Radowitz is back, breaking down Tuesday's Yankees vs. Mariners game and giving us his pick
Jason Radowitz
Tue, July 6, 5:58 AM EDT

MLB Picks: New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction

Date: July 6

Time:  10:10pm ET

Where: T-Mobile Park

Click here to view the latest odds

Yankees vs. Mariners Probable Pitchers

  • Yankees: Jameson Taillon (3-4, 5.43 ERA)
  • Mariners: Justus Sheffield (5-7, 5.88 ERA)

The Yankees are 42-41 and with another loss tonight they’ll be playing .500 baseball. It’s hard to imagine that the Mariners currently have a better record on the year.

It’s going to be a hard and long road trip if the Yankees don’t produce. But they’ll be given every single opportunity to produce in this first game against Justus Sheffield of the Mariners.

Sheffield is 5-7 with an ERA of 5.88 while walking just under 10 percent of batters. He’s got a WHIP of 1.71, is leaving just 67.1 percent of runners on base and has a SIERA of 5.02 with an FIP of 5.42.

Things have been a disaster for Sheffield this season - just as much as the Yankees season has been a disaster.

So something has to give. Either the Yankees offense will show up or Sheffield will show up.

In Sheffield’s last 56 plate appearances against righties, he’s allowed a .408 wOBA, .333 ISO and struck out under 20 percent of those batters while getting just 31 percent of ground balls.

Meanwhile, the Yankees would be expected to throw out an entire lineup of just right-handed hitters. As a team, their projected lineup has a .224 ISO and wOBA of .348 in the last 30 days against lefties.

There’s potential for this Yankees squad. They’ve added speed in Tim Locastro from the Diamondbacks and that will add a big threat on the basepaths for this team, which is something they lacked.

The reality is Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez are struggling to get a high batting average of plays in play against lefties recently. But with Sheffield allowing 50 percent hard contact against righties as of late, there’s reason to believe those premier bats in the Yankees lineup smack balls that find the outfield grass and potentially the wall in T-Mobile Park.

Sheffield likely won’t face any lefties but if he does, in his last seven plate appearances, he’s walked four of them and struck out none.

In his last four starts, Sheffield has allowed 3 or more runs in each start and hasn’t pitched beyond five innings.

For the Yankees, Jameson Taillon will get the start and there’s also reason to believe the Mariners find success offensively.

Taillon allowed five earned runs and three home runs against the Angels in his last start through 5.1 innings. He gave up nine hits and struggled getting ground balls like he has all season long.

Oddly enough, Taillon has been worse against righties with a wOBA of .496 in the last 33 plate appearances. However, he will allow more power to lefties than righties with an ISO of .261 in the last 30 days.

The Mariners have serious power against righties in their lineup including Jake Fraley, Luis Torrens, Dylan Moore, Kyle Seager and Mitch Haniger. The projected lineup is also walking nearly 10 percent of the time and have a wOBA of .323.

Realistically, if the Mariners are going to score, it’ll likely come from the long ball and you’d hope runners would be on base from potentially walking.

Taillion has been up and down all season long for the Yankees. He’s hard to pinpoint. But a pitcher that hasn’t been so hard to pinpoint has been Sheffield.

Sheffield has been a disaster and after getting a day off yesterday, I like the Yankees to come out swinging against Sheffield with an entire lineup of right-handed pitchers.

MLB Picks: New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners PredictionYankees F5 TT Over 2.5 @ -125

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