New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

Matt Zylbert gives us his pick for Tuesday's game between the Yankees and Mariners
Matt Zylbert
Tue, July 6, 12:25 PM EDT

New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction

New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners

Over/Under: 9.5

First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Probable pitchers: Jameson Taillon (3-4, 5.43 ERA) vs. Justus Sheffield (5-7, 5.88 ERA)

Yankees vs. Mariners

Now is the time for struggling pitchers to get some momentum going into the All-Star break. These hurlers recognize this.

Taillon is especially due to get going, having a 4.23 xERA (expected ERA based on expected weighted on-base average) that is more than a full run below the 5.23 ERA alongside his name. In other words, this is more evidence the former No. 2 overall draft pick is pitching better than his overall stats, pointing to a progression.

During his last turn, Taillon was bitten by the long ball, which can happen to any pitcher at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. With Taillon, it’s been one of his biggest culprits, as 10 of the 14 homers he’s allowed this season have come from home. Here, though, he’ll get to work for the first time in his career at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, and against a lineup that isn’t as intimidating as most.

Trusting Taillon can be a difference maker in cashing bets when he inevitably gets in a rhythm. And this has nothing to do with health — being his first year back from his second Tommy John surgery. As the six-year veteran even said a few weeks ago, “I’ve thrown a lot of quality things in the big leagues before. I know how to do it.”

He added: “If anything, I should be throwing better because I feel healthier than I have in a long time.” At full strength, it’s only a matter of time Taillon is back doing his thing. Even his K’s are up, too.

Sheffield is another underachieving American League pitcher not consistently getting close to the results he’s capable of. However, like his counterpart, the former Yankee farmhand is poised to rise.

First of all, Sheffield is dealing with bad luck that almost all pitchers don’t have to encounter. The .341 batting average on balls put in play against him is extremely unlucky, and this is a trend that has raged on for his three seasons with the Mariners.

That can’t possibly sustain, nor can Sheffield’s uncharacteristic stat line. The southpaw is easily better than a 5.88 ERA.

Though the Bronx Bombers aren’t any ideal challenge to start norming out numbers, at least Sheffield will be working from home, where he’s generally better. This trend is once again ringing true this year, evidenced by Sheffield honing an Era that is more than a run and a half lower in Seattle (5.11) than on the road (6.69 ERA).

Very rarely do totals at T-Mobile Park exceed 9. The linesmakers are playing with fire labeling this fine matchup as one.

MLB Picks: Yankees vs. Mariners Prediction

Pick: UNDER 9.5 (-110)

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MLB Leans

Braves-Pirates Under 9

Reds-Royals Under 10

Athletics-Astros Under 8.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “49-38-5,” +6.02 units

Yesterday’s Result: Dodgers-Marlins Under 7 (“loss”)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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