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Matt Zylbert is back, breaking down his play on the total for Dodgers vs. Marlins
ANALYSIS

Dodgers vs. Marlins Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 12:10 p.m. ET

TV: MLB Network

Probable pitchers: Julio Urias (10-3, 3.81 ERA) vs. Sandy Alcantara (5-7, 2.96 ERA)

Dodgers vs. Marlins

Well, well, well. Alcantara in the daytime.

Need I say more?

As continually pressed in this column since his beginning days with Miami, the 25-year-old has just consistently thrived significantly when working during afternoon hours, no matter the opponent.

After another standout performance his last turn with the sun out, Alcantara now holds a scorching 1.51 ERA in daytime starts this season while limiting hitters to a .211/.278/.322 slash line in those outings. For his career, he has a pristine 2.38 ERA in such assignments and batters are managing a puny .217/.288/.346 line.

Throw in the fact that Alcantara will be extra fueled to craft together a gem in front of Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, who was responsible for selecting the All-Star pitchers and will be in the opposing dugout. Though he wasn’t one of the two biggest snubs at his position, Alcantara will still feel like he has something to show.

That means on a total of 7.5, we can get by with an under so long as the other starter in the series finale doesn’t fold. Given what Urias has accomplished thus far in 2021, he’s a good bet for solid work.

While many might not think much of Urias being tied for the Major League lead in wins (10), it’s still an impressive achievement. Besides, there’s been other measures indicating what a strong campaign Urias is having, this while already logging a career high in starts (17)

He’s also one of 25 pitchers in baseball among qualified starters to be registering a double-digit strikeout rate (10 K/9). Furthermore, that .230 batting average against he has is nifty for the youngster.

Urias should also appreciate the particular matchup, drawing the offense that is dead last of all 30 clubs in team OPS .668) against left-handers this year.

Of course, Alcantara must tangle with a tough foe in the defending champs but this being a noon-start time following a nighttime affair, he’ll be catching the west coast-residing Dodgers a little off guard.

MLB Picks: Dodgers vs. Marlins Prediction

Pick: UNDER 7.5 (-116)

MLB Leans

Rockies-Diamondbacks Under 9.5

Blue Jays-Orioles Under 10.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “49-39-6,” +4.92 units

Yesterday’s Result: Tigers-Rangers Under 8 (Push)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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