MLB Picks: Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction
Date: July 9
Time: 8:10pm ET
Where: Target Field
Tigers vs. Twins Probable Pitchers
- Tigers: Matt Manning (1-2, 7.94 ERA)
- Twins: Kenta Maeda (4-3, 5.03 ERA)
The Twins found a way to win last night with J.A. Happ on the mound and will now send out Kenta Maeda for the second game of the series against the Tigers. Maeda is coming off his best start of the season and the Twins hope those kinds of starts continue.
Maeda went six innings against the Royals and allowed no runs off two hits and a walk. Instead, he struck out 10 batters and allowed only 10 batters to put the ball in play on the day.
Still, Maeda’s ERA sits at 5.03 and he’s got plenty of work to do to make his numbers respectable again. But his outing against the Royals was a start.
The Twins offense rallied back last night after they had been down 3-1. Minnesota scored four runs in the 6th and 7th and secured the victory for just their 36th win of the season.
The offense for the Twins is still without Byron Buxton but they’re producing more as of late.
The projected lineup for the Twins has an ISO of .255 against righties in the last 30 days with the first seven batters in the lineup having an ISO of .200 or above in the last 30 days against righties.
The squad is also finding their way on base with every batter but Ben Rortvedt and Andrelton Simmons having a wOBA of .330 or above against righties.
Meanwhile, Matt Manning of the Tigers has been rocked since coming up to the big leagues. The right-hander allowed seven hits in 2.2 innings against the White Sox and allowed two earned runs along with one walk.
He didn’t strike anyone out.
In the previous outing, against the Indians, Manning allowed nine hits and nine runs in 3.2 innings of work. While he had two strikeouts and no walks, he gave up two costly home runs.
The thing with Manning is that in three of his first four starts, he’s kind of been able to limit damage. He’s only given up 15 runs in 17 innings while allowing 25 hits and five walks with just six strikeouts.
With a WHIP of 1.76, a BABIP of .333, an average of .333 and an LOB percentage below 60 percent, he’s still been able to limit teams to two runs in three of his first four starts.
Obviously, Manning hasn’t pitched deep into games and gets the hook fairly quickly, but the reality is, more runs should be scored against Manning.
I’d expect that tonight from the Twins.
Manning is getting rocked by righties. In his last 30 plate appearances against righties, he’s allowing a .529 wOBA and an ISO of .321. Even lefties have a .347 wOBA and a .231 ISO in their last 30 plate appearances.
Manning hasn’t struck out a right-handed batter in his last 30 tries and only has 10 percent strikeouts against lefties. While he has limited the walks, he’s allowing 57.1 percent hard contact to righties and 40 percent to lefties.
The Twins lineup has a bunch of guys who hit the ball hard and limit ground balls. Luis Arraez, Josh Donaldson, Trevor Larnach, Nelson Cruzz, Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff and Max Kepler all have high wOBA and ISO numbers against righties in the last 30 days.
Even Simmons has been able to limit strikeouts to 8.9 percent. If he’s able to put the ball in play at the nine spot, the Twins offense will look really good.
Let’s roll with the Twins over five on the team total. This offense is about to break out.
MLB Picks: Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction: Twins TT Over 5.5 @ -105