MLB Over/Under Picks: Pirates vs. Mets Prediction

Matt Zylbert's play for Saturday comes to us from the Mets vs. Pirates game
Matt Zylbert
Sat, July 10, 8:39 AM EDT

MLB Over/Under Picks: Pirates vs. Mets Prediction

Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets (Game 1)

Over/Under: 6

First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Tyler Anderson (4-8, 4.39 ERA) vs. Marcus Stroman (6-6, 2.59 ERA)

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Pirates vs. Mets

Everybody is emptying their tanks going into the break. That’s the theme of the weekend, especially for pitchers with successful first halves trying to enter the All-Star festivities staying on a high note.

These two starting pitchers kicking off today’s twin bill certainly qualify as such. Stroman may not have made the National League All-Star squad (though he does have numbers that would’ve earned him a nod in other seasons) but he’s been enjoying a very first nice year in Flushing.

The eight-year vet is crafting maybe his best campaign to date — and that even includes topping his lone Midsummer Classic trip two seasons ago. Stroman owns a 2.59 ERA, which would be the lowest of his career if it holds, and he’s also logging his best-ever marks in WHIP (1.13) and batting average against (.233).

Stroman seems to like pitching at his new home park, Citi Field, where he’s posted a 2.25 ERA in nine starts. The right-hander’s been very consistent, yielding two earned runs or less in all but one of those outings.

He also apparently likes the challenge of taking on a doubleheader assignment under the seven-inning rules. Stroman has already started four of these games, pitching to the tune of a pretty 2.05 ERA.

Then there’s Anderson, coming off his best start in awhile (leading a victorious under we had) and maybe his best showing this season. At home against the first-place Milwaukee Brewers, Anderson shut them out for his terrific seven frames.

The sixth-year southpaw will see another division-leading club this afternoon and it’s one he can handle despite the Mets’ outburst at the dish last night. New York is saddled with the fourth-lowest team OPS (.703) opposite left-handers in the league.

Anderson was one of my top sleepers entering the campaign, and outside of one rough few-week stretch, he’s actually been real solid in his first year as a Bucco.

With Anderson back on the upswing, I like him to pick up where he left off in his last start and at least be game for most of the contest. Stroman’s work can do the rest.

Pirates vs. Mets Prediction

UNDER 6 (-105)

MLB Leans

Diamondbacks-Dodgers Under 8

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “51-39-6,” +6.92 units

Yesterday’s Result: Diamondbacks-Dodgers Under 5 F5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 uni

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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