MLB Picks & Odds: Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction

Today's pick from Jason Radowitz isn't an offical play, but he still broke the game down for everyone looking for some action
Jason Radowitz
Thu, July 15, 6:47 AM EDT

MLB Picks: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction

Date: July 15

Time: 7:00pm ET

Where: Yankee Stadium

Click here to view the latest odds

Yankees vs. Red Sox  Probable Pitchers

  • Red Sox: Eduardo Rodriguez (6-5, 5.52 ERA)
  • Yankees: Jordan Montgomery (3-4, 4.16 ERA)

At the time of writing this article, it looks as though Jordan Montgomery will be the  starter for the Yankees tonight. He has not been confirmed as the starter at this time.

This bet is also NOT official. I’m not placing money on this wager. This is the only game on the card and I’m still going to break it down for those who want some action. Every other wager that I give out will be a wager I put money on. Today is the exception.

Jordan Montgomery will most likely take the mound for the Yankees. He has struggled against righties at times with his strikeout rate, ground ball rate and walk rate worse against righties on the season.

In the last 30 days, he’s actually been able to strike out more righties than lefties so that’s something developing and worth a look at, but he’s also faced way less lefties to begin with at just 27 in the last 30 days.

The Red Sox have hit lefties well recently with the projected lineup hitting a .220 ISO and .372 wOBA. They’ve limited strikeouts to 16.8 percent and walk at a really high rate of 12 percent. On top of that, they’re only hitting 36.7 percent ground balls.

For the Red Sox, another lefty will take the mound in Eduardo Rodriguez. There’s another guy who struggles more against righties than lefties, as a lefty. It all makes sense.

The Yankees lineup, like the Red Sox lineup, includes stacks of righties. As of late, the Yankees have crushed left-handed pitching and with Tim Locastro in the lineup, the Yankees have a .396 wOBA with the projected lineup along with an ISO of .217.

The Yankees are walking 16.9 percent of the time against lefties and only striking out 18.9 percent of the time. Those are tremendous numbers for a sample size of about 21 at-bats per batter in the last 30 days against lefties.

But get this, Rodriguez has walked just 3.2 percent of batters in the last 30 days and only 2.7 percent of righties. Something will have to give.

Either the Yankees come back impatient from the long break or Rodriguez is a bit rusty from the long break.

It’s going to be about 87 degrees first pitch with 8mph winds going right to left.

The Yankees have better career numbers against Rodriguez than the Red Sox do against Montgomery. Even though Rodriguez has limited walks as of late, he’s walked Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez 16 times combined.

If they’re able to at least work walks and get on base, the rest of the lineup, outside Brett Gardner, have averages over .300 against Rodriguez.

Now the Yankees haven’t been all that clutch against anyone this season but they’ll only need a couple clutch hits with runners on base to cash the team total ticket.

So I’ll roll with the Yankees on the team total.

MLB Picks - New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: Yankees TT Over 4.5 @ -125

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