San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Prediction: MLB Picks

Expert MLB handicapper Jason Radowitz finds the best bets for Padres @ Nationals on Friday night
Jason Radowitz
Fri, July 16, 11:04 AM EDT

San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Prediction: MLB Picks for Friday July 16

Friday July 16, 7.05pm ET

Nationals Park

Probable Pitchers:

  • Padres: Chris Paddack (4-6, 5.38 ERA)
  • Nationals: Erick Fedde (4-6, 4.59 ERA)

San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Predictions

View odds for the game here.

The second half of the season is finally underway. After last night’s postponement, we had to wait another full day for action.

The Padres are currently third in the NL West while the Nationals still believe they can win the NL East, even down five games from .500.

It’ll be a competitive series. Usually the Padres play to the level of their opponent. The Nationals are still technically contenders for a playoff spot so that bodes well for the Padres.

Erick Fedde will take the mound for the Nationals, at home. Fedde is 4-6 with a 4.59 ERA on the year and has really looked bad in his last three starts this season.

He’s allowed 14 runs in his last 13.1 innings against the Phillies, Padres and Giants with all three games coming on the road. He’ll be home for this one but against the Padres earlier on July 6, Fedde allowed eight hits, six runs and struck out just two batters through 4.1 innings.

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In his last 30 days, Fedde holds an XFIP of 5.88 and he’s striking out under 15 percent of batters while walking over 10 percent. His ground ball rate is low and he’s also allowing 41.2 percent hard contact.

Right now, it doesn’t matter which side you’re hitting from. Fedde is struggling, allowing an ISO of nearly .250 against both sides of the plate. Most of his walks do however come from the left side where he’s walking 15.4 percent of batters.

The Padres have heated up against righties before the break. We’ll see if that carries over but I expect it will. They’re hitting a combined .215 ISO and have a .360 wOBA against righties in the last month or so. They’re also walking nine percent of the time against righties and limit strikeouts to just 21.4 percent.

It’s a great matchup for the Padres and the weather is hot, humid and will have light winds blowing out, giving the Padres some nice weather to go along with their bats.

On the flip side, Chris Paddack will take the mound for the Padres. He’s also struggling, especially getting strikeouts. He’s got a 4.57 XFIP in the last 30 days and is striking out only 18.3 percent of batters. He has limited walks and does get 45.3 percent ground balls in the last 30 days but right now, lefties and righties have a wOBA of .412 or higher with lefties hitting for very high power.

The Nationals offense really hasn’t been all that but the top five guys in the lineup are getting on base at a solid rate. They’re just not hitting for power outside of Trea Turner. Juan Soto, who was in the home run derby, has all the power potential in the world but he’s hitting more ground balls throughout the regular season.

The Nationals can hold their own against Paddack but I’d much rather take my chance with the Padres bats against Fedde. They destroyed him earlier this month where he allowed six runs on eight hits in less than five innings of work.

I truly expect that again so I’ll ride with the Padres Over 2.5 in the first five innings.

San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Prediction: Padres Over 2.5 TT (-105) at DraftKings

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