MLB Picks: Padres vs. Nationals Prediction
Date: Saturday, July 17
Time: 7:05pm ET
Where: Nationals Park
Padres vs. Nationals Probable Pitchers:
- Padres: Blake Snell (3-3, 4.99 ERA)
- Nationals: Patrick Corbin (6-7, 5.40 ERA)
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Predictions
The Padres put up 24 runs last night, winning their game 24-8 against the Nationals on the road in stunning fashion. I watched the game. I had over 2.5 in the first five innings for the Padres. I can promise you, they were playing baseball. It wasn’t football!
The Padres and Nationals have gone over in every single one of their meetings this season and that likely won’t change today with Blake Snell due to take the mound for the Padres.
Snell has been everything but good this season with a 4.99 ERA. He pitched on June 22 and allowed no runs on four hits against the Dodgers. But was sidelined until July 4 where he also shut down the Phillies through four innings, allowing two hits and four walks with three strikeouts.
The seven walks in nine innings isn’t going to cut it. He’s not going to be able to escape each and every game.
The Nationals batters haven’t really faced Snell all that much in their careers but the projected lineup has absolutely raked against lefties as of late.
The Nationals lineup is averaging a .258 ISO and a .363 wOBA against lefties in an average of 20 at-bats per batter. They’re also striking out under 15 percent of the time and walk just under eight percent.
The walks will likely be higher against Snell, who has walked 17.9 percent of batters in the last 30 days.
It’s just going to take the Nationals one clutch hit to damage Snell with runners on base in this one. Snell has a 5.97 XFIP and strikeouts are down as of late with just 20.5 percent in his last 39 plate appearances.
On the other hand, Patrick Corbin will take the hill for the Nationals. He’s had his nights where he gets lit up too. He’s holding a 4.86 XFIP in the last 30 days and is striking out under 15 percent of batters. There’s no question the Padres could tee off against Corbin.
Corbin faced the Padres on the road on July 7 where he allowed two runs on seven hits with just three strikeouts. He walked two and allowed a home run on 106 pitches.
In 10.2 innings in July, Corbin has allowed eight runs on 15 hits with three home runs and just five strikeouts.
The one batter who has ripped Corbin has been Will Myers. Myers is 10-31 with four doubles and a homer against Corbin. Of course, like the rest of the Padres lineup last night, Myers had a day with two home runs including a grand slam.
The Padres, however, concern me a little bit. They’re not the best offense against lefties. Only Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth, who hit for the cycle last night, have real power against lefties recently.
The Padres don’t hit for high power against lefties but they have limited strikeouts and walk 14.5 percent of the time in the last 30 days. However, Corbin has limited walks which will be crucial if he wants to stay in the game another six innings.
Just like the Nationals, the Padres will need some clutch hits early in this one. They got all the clutch hits last night and I’m not so sure they’ll be able to find more tonight.
The Nationals have the offense that matches up much better and I’ll roll with the home team on the first five team totals for that very reason.
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Prediction: Nationals Over 2 TT F5 (-131) at PointsBet